luckadjusted

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Jets at Patriots, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Jets 10–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 8 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 29 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:26 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 42 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New York Jets 3
New England Patriots 10

November 20, 2022 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3.5

Luck index +15 Patriots about even · −15 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 2, Patriots win 8.

  1. 1 NYJ 27 NE 14
  2. 2 NYJ 13 NE 10
  3. 3 NYJ 7 NE 9
  4. 4 NYJ 13 NE 17
  5. 5 NYJ 13 NE 20
  6. 6 NYJ 3 NE 13
  7. 7 NYJ 7 NE 20
  8. 8 NYJ 7 NE 23
  9. 9 NYJ 3 NE 24
  10. 10 NYJ 5 NE 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 15% of them, Patriots 85%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.9%
Jets by 9–163.4%
Jets by 1–810.5%
Level after regulation1.2%
Patriots by 1–824.8%
Patriots by 9–1622.8%
Patriots by 17+36.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.1 points to the Jets: the final margin was Patriots by 7, without the luck Patriots by 17.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 24 yds made · 100% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 45 yds made · 81% expected
  • N. Folk, 44 yds missed · 84% expected
  • N. Folk, 43 yds missed · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 3 for 15 yards, Patriots 8 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:19 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q1 9:31 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.6 pts
Q1 8:08 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Jets (Jamien Sherwood), 5 yards +4% NE +0.6 pts
Q1 7:59 Running Into the Kicker on the Patriots (Raekwon McMillan), 5 yards +4% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q1 1:43 Illegal Formation on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q2 14:06 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Matt Judon), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q2 9:57 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.6 pts
Q2 4:05 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +8% NYJ +1.8 pts
Q3 10:53 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +3% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q4 14:09 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Patriots (DeVante Parker), 10 yards +4% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q4 1:40 Defensive Holding on the Patriots, 5 yards +13% NYJ +1.3 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:53 The Jets converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +15% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
2 Q2 6:16 The Patriots converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +9% NE NE: Missed field goal
3 Q2 4:05 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yardsJudgment calls +8% NYJ NYJ: Punt
4 Q2 2:00 The Jets converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Punt
5 Q4 11:06 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedJ. Meyers dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 48 catchable balls before this +12% NYJ NE: Punt
6 Q4 1:45 The Jets got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +30% NYJ NYJ: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 1:40 Defensive Holding on the Patriots, 5 yardsJudgment calls +13% NYJ NYJ: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 0:26 Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +42% NE NE: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Cannon (NE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jake Bailey (NE P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Joe Flacco (NYJ QB), out, replaced by z.wilson · 1.1 pts
  • Corey Davis (NYJ WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • George Fant (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nate Herbig (NYJ G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Breece Hall (NYJ RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (NYJ DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 0% · Patriots 100%

Final margin
Patriots by 7
Luck in points
10.1 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 17.1
Replay with same day's form
Jets 15% · Patriots 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Jets · Patriots

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