luckadjusted

Week 11 2022 · November 17, 2022

Titans at Packers, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Packers 27–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Packers: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Packers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:59 left): the Titans were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 16 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Tennessee Titans 27
Green Bay Packers 17

November 17, 2022 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −3

Luck index +15 Titans about even · −15 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 8, Packers win 2.

  1. 1 TEN 33 GB 3
  2. 2 TEN 33 GB 9
  3. 3 TEN 37 GB 19
  4. 4 TEN 24 GB 10
  5. 5 TEN 27 GB 17
  6. 6 TEN 20 GB 13
  7. 7 TEN 27 GB 23
  8. 8 TEN 10 GB 9
  9. 9 TEN 17 GB 20
  10. 10 TEN 6 GB 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Packers

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 15%.

39 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Titans offenseEPA per play gained +0.33 +0.10 better by 0.23
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed −0.01 +0.08 better by 0.09
Packers offenseEPA per play gained −0.01 +0.13 worse by 0.14
Packers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.33 +0.10 worse by 0.23

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 85% of them, Packers 15%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+35.0%
Titans by 9–1623.0%
Titans by 1–826.1%
Level after regulation0.8%
Packers by 1–810.3%
Packers by 9–163.9%
Packers by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 10, without the luck Titans by 4.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 39 yds made · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 2 for 19 yards, Packers 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +2% GB +0.9 pts
Q1 10:31 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Johnathan Abram), 10 yards +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q2 14:12 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Darnell Savage Jr.), 6 yards, wiping out the play 0% TEN +0.4 pts
Q2 3:35 Intentional Grounding on the Packers (Aaron Rodgers), 9 yards +3% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 3:21 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.3 pts
Q3 8:25 Illegal Blindside Block on the Titans, 9 yards +2% GB +0.8 pts
Q4 10:44 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% TEN +1.7 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:05 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +15% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:42 The Packers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedThe Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:05 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:59 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +16% GB TEN: Touchdown
5 Q2 3:35 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Packers (Aaron Rodgers), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 4035 snaps before, position avg 1 per 697 +8% TEN GB: Punt
6 Q3 10:34 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% GB GB: Field goal
7 Q3 8:29 M. Crosby made 39-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +8% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:44 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% TEN TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Romeo Doubs (GB WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • De'Vondre Campbell (GB LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Eric Stokes (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashan Gary (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Jones (TEN C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Randy Bullock (TEN K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 87% · Packers 13%

Final margin
Titans by 10
Luck in points
5.3 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 4.7
Replay with same day's form
Titans 85% · Packers 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Titans · Packers

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