luckadjusted

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Browns vs Bills, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Browns 31–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Bills were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:53 left): the Browns converted 3rd & 11, worth 13 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 23
Buffalo Bills 31

November 20, 2022 · Ford Field · Closing line: Bills −7.5

Luck index +30 Bills lucky · −30 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 3, Bills win 7.

  1. 1 CLE 43 BUF 23
  2. 2 CLE 41 BUF 34
  3. 3 CLE 33 BUF 30
  4. 4 CLE 36 BUF 38
  5. 5 CLE 20 BUF 25
  6. 6 CLE 19 BUF 26
  7. 7 CLE 26 BUF 37
  8. 8 CLE 16 BUF 31
  9. 9 CLE 24 BUF 44
  10. 10 CLE 24 BUF 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 29% of them, Bills 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+4.2%
Browns by 9–168.2%
Browns by 1–815.2%
Level after regulation3.9%
Bills by 1–823.9%
Bills by 9–1619.9%
Bills by 17+24.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 8, without the luck Bills by 2.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. York, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • T. Bass, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • T. Bass, 56 yds made · 65% expected
  • C. York, 34 yds blocked · 94% expected
  • T. Bass, 49 yds made · 77% expected
  • T. Bass, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • T. Bass, 39 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 6 for 42 yards, Bills 8 for 89 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:37 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Kareem Hunt), 7 yards, wiping out the play +7% BUF +3.5 pts
Q2 11:57 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Ronnie Harrison), 10 yards +3% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 6:05 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +1% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 2:08 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.7 pts
Q3 11:06 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CLE +2.8 pts
Q3 9:42 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (Von Miller), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.4 pts
Q3 7:04 Face Mask on the Bills (Dane Jackson), 15 yards +3% CLE +1.0 pts
Q3 5:49 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Tommy Togiai), 15 yards +4% BUF +1.6 pts
Q3 4:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Damar Hamlin), 36 yards +3% CLE +2.8 pts
Q3 2:31 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.8 pts
Q4 5:33 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Von Miller), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.2 pts
Q4 4:11 Illegal Touch Pass on the Browns (Amari Cooper), 0 yards +1% BUF +0.8 pts
Q4 0:49 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Matt Milano), 5 yards 0% BUF +0.3 pts
Q4 0:30 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Shaq Lawson), 3 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.3 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:53 The Browns converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +13% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:39 The Browns converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:37 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Kareem Hunt), 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1441 snaps before, position avg 1 per 821 +7% BUF BUF: Field goal
4 Q2 14:13 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedP. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 12 catchable balls before this +10% BUF CLE: Field goal
5 Q2 3:32 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +10% CLE CLE: Punt
6 Q2 2:08 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFalse Start on the Browns, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% BUF CLE: Punt
7 Q3 11:06 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 5:57 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% BUF CLE: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tremaine Edmunds (BUF LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kaiir Elam (BUF DB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kaiir Elam (BUF CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jacob Phillips (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 43% · Bills 57%

Final margin
Bills by 8
Luck in points
5.7 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 2.3
Replay with same day's form
Browns 29% · Bills 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Browns · Bills

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