2022 season · final

New England Patriots, 2022: game by game

The Patriots went 8–9 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.2 wins. Luck cost them 1.2: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.

Every game

How often the Patriots win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Dolphins	L 7–20	38%	−38
Week 2	@ Steelers	W 17–14	78%	+22
Week 3	vs Ravens	L 26–37	32%	−32
Week 4	@ Packers	L 24–27	38%	−38
Week 5	vs Lions	W 29–0	88%	+12
Week 6	@ Browns	W 38–15	96%	+4
Week 7	vs Bears	L 14–33	59%	−59
Week 8	@ Jets	W 22–17	45%	+55
Week 9	vs Colts	W 26–3	57%	+43
Week 11	vs Jets	W 10–3	85%	+15
Week 12	@ Vikings	L 26–33	65%	−65
Week 13	vs Bills	L 10–24	9%	−9
Week 14	@ Cardinals	W 27–13	82%	+18
Week 15	@ Raiders	L 24–30	59%	−59
Week 16	vs Bengals	L 18–22	35%	−35
Week 17	vs Dolphins	W 23–21	41%	+59
Week 18	@ Bills	L 23–35	11%	−11

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −38 @ MIA

Wk 2 +22 @ PIT

Wk 3 −32 vs BAL

Wk 4 −38 @ GB

Wk 5 +12 vs DET

Wk 6 +4 @ CLE

Wk 7 −59 vs CHI

Wk 8 +55 @ NYJ

Wk 9 +43 vs IND

Wk 11 +15 vs NYJ

Wk 12 −65 @ MIN

Wk 13 −9 vs BUF

Wk 14 +18 @ ARI

Wk 15 −59 @ LV

Wk 16 −35 vs CIN

Wk 17 +59 vs MIA

Wk 18 −11 @ BUF

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Patriots’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Injuries	+0.32	+9.5
Rest	−0.06	−2.0
Kicks	−0.10	+0.8
3rd & 4th downs	−0.11	−7.9
Drops	−0.31	−2.4
Fumble bounces	−0.49	+7.9
Judgment calls	−0.49	−3.7