luckadjusted

Week 13 2022 · December 1, 2022

Bills at Patriots, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Patriots 24–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Bills were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:47 left): Offensive Holding on the Bills (Tommy Sweeney), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Buffalo Bills 24
New England Patriots 10

December 1, 2022 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Bills −3.5

Luck index +9 Bills about even · −9 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 9, Patriots win 1.

  1. 1 BUF 30 NE 0
  2. 2 BUF 30 NE 7
  3. 3 BUF 26 NE 7
  4. 4 BUF 34 NE 17
  5. 5 BUF 37 NE 24
  6. 6 BUF 13 NE 3
  7. 7 BUF 21 NE 13
  8. 8 BUF 20 NE 14
  9. 9 BUF 13 NE 10
  10. 10 BUF 3 NE 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 91% of them, Patriots 9%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+51.2%
Bills by 9–1622.4%
Bills by 1–817.4%
Level after regulation1.4%
Patriots by 1–85.3%
Patriots by 9–161.9%
Patriots by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Bills by 14, without the luck Bills by 16.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 48 yds made · 75% expected
  • N. Folk, 48 yds missed · 75% expected
  • N. Folk, 39 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 6 for 47 yards, Patriots 6 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:49 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NE +1.7 pts
Q1 9:02 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.8 pts
Q1 6:03 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% BUF +1.4 pts
Q1 2:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 22 yards +9% BUF +2.8 pts
Q2 14:56 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 8 yards +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 14:14 Intentional Grounding on the Patriots (Mac Jones), 7 yards +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q2 13:25 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.4 pts
Q2 1:47 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Tommy Sweeney), 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% NE +4.8 pts
Q3 13:06 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bills (Gabriel Davis), 10 yards 0% NE +0.9 pts
Q3 10:36 Defensive Holding on the Bills (DaQuan Jones), 5 yards +1% NE +1.7 pts
Q4 3:34 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards 0% BUF +1.2 pts
Q4 2:59 Disqualification on the Bills (Damar Hamlin), 7 yards 0% NE +2.3 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:57 D. Singletary dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 34 catchable balls before this +4% NE BUF: Field goal
2 Q1 11:23 The Bills converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% BUF BUF: Field goal
3 Q1 10:49 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3667 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +5% NE NE: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:42 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NE NE: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 22 yardsJudgment calls +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q2 5:34 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:47 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Tommy Sweeney), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 458 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +12% NE NE: Missed field goal
8 Q2 1:31 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Bills fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NE BUF: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jalen Mills (NE CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Marcus Cannon (NE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Yodny Cajuste (NE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jake Bailey (NE P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Dion Dawkins (BUF T), out · 1.3 pts
  • Christian Benford (BUF CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Von Miller (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kaiir Elam (BUF CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 97% · Patriots 3%

Final margin
Bills by 14
Luck in points
2.8 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 16.8
Replay with same day's form
Bills 91% · Patriots 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Bills · Patriots

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