luckadjusted

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Jets at Vikings, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Jets 27–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:46 left): the Jets were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 43 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

New York Jets 22
Minnesota Vikings 27

December 4, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3

Luck index +39 Vikings lucky · −39 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 4, Vikings win 6.

  1. 1 NYJ 34 MIN 14
  2. 2 NYJ 26 MIN 16
  3. 3 NYJ 16 MIN 10
  4. 4 NYJ 33 MIN 31
  5. 5 NYJ 14 MIN 16
  6. 6 NYJ 25 MIN 29
  7. 7 NYJ 16 MIN 24
  8. 8 NYJ 15 MIN 26
  9. 9 NYJ 20 MIN 37
  10. 10 NYJ 8 MIN 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 39% of them, Vikings 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+7.8%
Jets by 9–1613.3%
Jets by 1–817.0%
Level after regulation3.3%
Vikings by 1–825.1%
Vikings by 9–1617.6%
Vikings by 17+15.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 5, without the luck Vikings by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 51 yds made · 70% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • G. Joseph, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 60 yds made · 59% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 6 for 40 yards, Vikings 3 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Corey Davis), 10 yards +1% MIN +0.9 pts
Q1 6:42 Face Mask on the Vikings (Jonathan Bullard), 15 yards +5% NYJ +1.7 pts
Q1 6:17 False Start on the Jets (Corey Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.5 pts
Q1 3:02 Defensive Holding on the Jets (D.J. Reed), 5 yards +1% MIN +0.4 pts
Q1 1:39 Defensive Holding on the Jets, 5 yards +4% MIN +0.3 pts
Q2 13:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Jordan Whitehead), 5 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 5:31 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q3 2:22 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets, 10 yards +3% MIN +1.5 pts
Q4 7:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Duke Shelley), 24 yards +3% NYJ +2.0 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:41 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedThe Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% MIN NYJ: Field goal
2 Q4 6:49 The Jets converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +11% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q4 3:48 The Jets converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +29% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 1:50 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +10% MIN NYJ: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 1:46 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expectedB. Berrios dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 16 catchable balls before this +43% MIN NYJ: Turnover
6 Q4 0:27 The Jets got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
7 Q4 0:23 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% MIN NYJ: Turnover
8 Q4 0:16 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +38% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Christian Darrisaw (MIN T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cameron Dantzler (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cedric Ogbuehi (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Breece Hall (NYJ RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 34% · Vikings 66%

Final margin
Vikings by 5
Luck in points
2.6 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Jets 39% · Vikings 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Jets · Vikings

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