luckadjusted

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Seahawks at Rams, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Rams 27–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:42 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 18 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 27
Los Angeles Rams 23

December 4, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −7

Luck index +10 Seahawks about even · −10 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Rams win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 38 LA 7
  2. 2 SEA 41 LA 17
  3. 3 SEA 23 LA 3
  4. 4 SEA 34 LA 17
  5. 5 SEA 24 LA 10
  6. 6 SEA 21 LA 10
  7. 7 SEA 14 LA 5
  8. 8 SEA 13 LA 8
  9. 9 SEA 30 LA 28
  10. 10 SEA 7 LA 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 90% of them, Rams 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+51.4%
Seahawks by 9–1621.1%
Seahawks by 1–816.5%
Level after regulation1.6%
Rams by 1–86.3%
Rams by 9–162.4%
Rams by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.2 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 4, without the luck Rams by 8.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • M. Gay, 54 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Myers, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Gay, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Myers, 26 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 6 for 42 yards, Rams 4 for 39 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:30 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.8 pts
Q1 2:25 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.7 pts
Q1 2:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams, 14 yards +4% SEA +1.3 pts
Q2 9:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Tre Brown), 6 yards +4% LA +1.4 pts
Q2 5:13 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.5 pts
Q2 1:57 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Bruce Irvin), 6 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.5 pts
Q3 10:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams, 15 yards +5% SEA +2.1 pts
Q3 7:42 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yards +6% LA +1.1 pts
Q4 2:07 Illegal Contact on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 5 yards +3% SEA +0.3 pts
Q4 0:26 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.2 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:14 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +13% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q3 11:57 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +10% SEA LA: Punt
3 Q3 7:42 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3455 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +18% LA SEA: Field goal
4 Q4 13:43 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% SEA LA: Field goal
5 Q4 5:18 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +12% SEA LA: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:33 The Rams converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +16% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:46 The Seahawks got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:41 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% SEA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matthew Stafford (LA QB), out (IR), replaced by j.wolford · 7.5 pts
  • Cooper Kupp (LA WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Aaron Donald (LA DT), out · 0.9 pts
  • Allen Robinson (LA WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Alaric Jackson (LA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Troy Hill (LA CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chandler Brewer (LA T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • A'Shawn Robinson (LA DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bobby Evans (LA G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Terrell Lewis (LA LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 80% · Rams 20%

Final margin
Seahawks by 4
Luck in points
12.2 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 8.2
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 90% · Rams 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Seahawks · Rams

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