luckadjusted

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Titans at Eagles, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Titans 35–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:53 left): the Titans converted 3rd & 3, worth 15 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 10
Philadelphia Eagles 35

December 4, 2022 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −5

Luck index +10 Eagles about even · −10 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 1, Eagles win 9.

  1. 1 TEN 23 PHI 17
  2. 2 TEN 14 PHI 17
  3. 3 TEN 18 PHI 24
  4. 4 TEN 20 PHI 30
  5. 5 TEN 10 PHI 23
  6. 6 TEN 19 PHI 34
  7. 7 TEN 16 PHI 33
  8. 8 TEN 10 PHI 30
  9. 9 TEN 13 PHI 37
  10. 10 TEN 9 PHI 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 10% of them, Eagles 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.5%
Titans by 9–162.3%
Titans by 1–86.3%
Level after regulation1.8%
Eagles by 1–817.6%
Eagles by 9–1620.8%
Eagles by 17+50.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.9 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 25, without the luck Eagles by 16.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Titans 7 for 82 yards, Eagles 12 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:54 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.8 pts
Q1 13:43 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TEN +0.9 pts
Q1 7:01 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Josh Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +1.4 pts
Q1 2:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Marcus Epps), 15 yards +4% TEN +2.2 pts
Q1 2:06 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.8 pts
Q1 0:20 Illegal Shift on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% TEN +1.6 pts
Q2 14:27 False Start on the Eagles (Jack Stoll), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.9 pts
Q2 12:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Mario Edwards), 15 yards +3% PHI +1.5 pts
Q2 11:05 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +5% TEN +1.9 pts
Q2 10:46 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Bud Dupree), 15 yards +6% PHI +2.5 pts
Q2 10:01 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 4:40 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +1.2 pts
Q2 1:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 24 yards +5% PHI +2.0 pts
Q3 8:06 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 4:21 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% TEN +1.7 pts
Q3 0:02 False Start on the Eagles (Jalen Hurts), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +1.5 pts
Q4 12:24 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 3 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +1.0 pts
Q4 10:59 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards 0% PHI +1.0 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.7 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:53 The Titans converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:53 The Titans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Marcus Epps), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 2566 snaps before, position avg 1 per 473 +15% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:20 Illegal Shift on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +5% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q2 11:05 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% TEN TEN: Field goal
5 Q2 10:46 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Bud Dupree), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2400 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +6% PHI PHI: Punt
6 Q2 5:22 D. Henry dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 27 catchable balls before this +5% PHI TEN: Field goal
7 Q2 4:20 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% PHI TEN: Field goal
8 Q2 1:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 24 yardsJudgment calls +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denico Autry (TEN DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 1% · Eagles 99%

Final margin
Eagles by 25
Luck in points
8.9 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 16.1
Replay with same day's form
Titans 10% · Eagles 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Titans · Eagles

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