luckadjusted

Week 13 2022 · December 4, 2022

Chargers at Raiders, Week 13 2022: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Chargers 27–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: drops alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:15 left): the Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 42 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 20
Las Vegas Raiders 27

December 4, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −2.5

Luck index +5 Raiders about even · −5 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 LAC 25 LV 17
  2. 2 LAC 14 LV 17
  3. 3 LAC 16 LV 23
  4. 4 LAC 23 LV 33
  5. 5 LAC 9 LV 22
  6. 6 LAC 17 LV 33
  7. 7 LAC 14 LV 34
  8. 8 LAC 3 LV 27
  9. 9 LAC 10 LV 38
  10. 10 LAC 16 LV 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 5% of them, Raiders 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+0.2%
Chargers by 9–161.1%
Chargers by 1–83.8%
Level after regulation0.6%
Raiders by 1–810.3%
Raiders by 9–1620.3%
Raiders by 17+63.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.3 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Raiders by 7, without the luck Raiders by 11.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Dicker, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • D. Carlson, 55 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. Dicker, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Carlson, 52 yds blocked · 75% expected
  • C. Dicker, 52 yds missed · 72% expected
  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 4 for 20 yards, Raiders 3 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:21 Defensive Holding on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 5 yards 0% LAC +0.2 pts
Q1 5:07 Defensive Holding on the Chargers, 5 yards +3% LV +0.9 pts
Q2 3:34 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chargers (Asante Samuel Jr.), 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% LV +0.9 pts
Q3 14:22 Defensive Holding on the Raiders, 5 yards +1% LAC +0.2 pts
Q3 10:53 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC 0.0 pts
Q4 12:19 Illegal Contact on the Raiders (Tre'von Moehrig), 5 yards 0% LAC +0.3 pts
Q4 8:34 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV 0.0 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:49 The Raiders fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LAC LV: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 6:16 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +12% LV LAC: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 5:15 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the ChargersSpecial teams +42% LAC LV: Punt
4 Q2 9:29 The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% LV LV: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:09 D. Carlson had a 52-yard field goal blockedKicks · 75% expected for him, 31 of 38 from 45+ before +11% LAC LV: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:54 The Chargers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% LAC LAC: Missed field goal
7 Q3 11:30 C. Dicker missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +8% LV LAC: Punt
8 Q4 8:44 The Chargers converted 4th & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Hunter Renfrow (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Averett (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Trey Pipkins (LAC T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Corey Linsley (LAC C), out · 0.7 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dustin Hopkins (LAC K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Johnson (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 2% · Raiders 98%

Final margin
Raiders by 7
Luck in points
4.4 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 11.4
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 5% · Raiders 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2022 games · Chargers · Raiders

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