luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · December 1, 2022–December 5

Week 13 2022: who deserved to win

2 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Buccaneers beat the Saints 17–16 in a game they win 25% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 13 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 1 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bengals 27–24 vs Chiefs 43% 52% Coin flip

Week 13 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Buccaneers W 17–16 vs Saints 25% +75
2 Steelers W 19–16 @ Falcons 40% +60
3 Bengals W 27–24 vs Chiefs 52% +48
4 Commanders T 20–20 @ Giants 9% +41
5 Ravens W 10–9 vs Broncos 60% +40
6 Vikings W 27–22 vs Jets 61% +39
7 Packers W 28–19 @ Bears 72% +28
8 49ers W 33–17 vs Dolphins 79% +21
9 Browns W 27–14 @ Texans 82% +18
10 Eagles W 35–10 vs Titans 90% +10
11 Seahawks W 27–23 @ Rams 90% +10
12 Lions W 40–14 vs Jaguars 90% +10
13 Bills W 24–10 @ Patriots 91% +9
14 Cowboys W 54–19 vs Colts 92% +8
15 Raiders W 27–20 vs Chargers 95% +5
16 Chargers L 20–27 @ Raiders 5% −5
17 Colts L 19–54 @ Cowboys 8% −8
18 Patriots L 10–24 vs Bills 9% −9
19 Jaguars L 14–40 @ Lions 10% −10
20 Rams L 23–27 vs Seahawks 10% −10
21 Titans L 10–35 @ Eagles 10% −10
22 Texans L 14–27 vs Browns 18% −18
23 Dolphins L 17–33 @ 49ers 21% −21
24 Bears L 19–28 vs Packers 28% −28
25 Jets L 22–27 @ Vikings 39% −39
26 Broncos L 9–10 @ Ravens 40% −40
27 Giants T 20–20 vs Commanders 91% −41
28 Chiefs L 24–27 @ Bengals 48% −48
29 Falcons L 16–19 vs Steelers 60% −60
30 Saints L 16–17 @ Buccaneers 75% −75