luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · December 8, 2022–December 12

Week 14 2022: who deserved to win

2 of 13 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Rams beat the Raiders 17–16 in a game they win 19% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 14 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Rams 17–16 vs Raiders 32% 19% Lucky
Panthers 30–24 @ Seahawks 40% 55% Coin flip
Jaguars 36–22 @ Titans 41% 93% Deserved
Chargers 23–17 vs Dolphins 41% 76% Deserved
Ravens 16–14 @ Steelers 46% 28% Lucky

Week 14 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Rams W 17–16 vs Raiders 19% +81
2 Ravens W 16–14 @ Steelers 28% +72
3 Panthers W 30–24 @ Seahawks 55% +45
4 Chargers W 23–17 vs Dolphins 76% +25
5 Cowboys W 27–23 vs Texans 78% +22
6 Patriots W 27–13 @ Cardinals 82% +18
7 Lions W 34–23 vs Vikings 87% +13
8 Bengals W 23–10 vs Browns 92% +8
9 Jaguars W 36–22 @ Titans 93% +7
10 Eagles W 48–22 @ Giants 93% +7
11 Bills W 20–12 vs Jets 95% +5
12 49ers W 35–7 vs Buccaneers 96% +4
13 Chiefs W 34–28 @ Broncos 99% +1
14 Broncos L 28–34 vs Chiefs 1% −1
15 Buccaneers L 7–35 @ 49ers 4% −4
16 Jets L 12–20 @ Bills 5% −5
17 Giants L 22–48 vs Eagles 7% −7
18 Titans L 22–36 vs Jaguars 7% −7
19 Browns L 10–23 @ Bengals 8% −8
20 Vikings L 23–34 @ Lions 13% −13
21 Cardinals L 13–27 vs Patriots 18% −18
22 Texans L 23–27 @ Cowboys 22% −22
23 Dolphins L 17–23 @ Chargers 25% −25
24 Seahawks L 24–30 vs Panthers 45% −45
25 Steelers L 14–16 vs Ravens 72% −72
26 Raiders L 16–17 @ Rams 81% −81