luckadjusted

Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022

Buccaneers at 49ers, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Buccaneers 35–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:43 left): Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 20 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7
San Francisco 49ers 35

December 11, 2022 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −3.5

Luck index +4 49ers about even · −4 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 0, 49ers win 10.

  1. 1 TB 24 SF 27
  2. 2 TB 7 SF 13
  3. 3 TB 30 SF 40
  4. 4 TB 14 SF 27
  5. 5 TB 12 SF 27
  6. 6 TB 10 SF 28
  7. 7 TB 10 SF 31
  8. 8 TB 10 SF 35
  9. 9 TB 7 SF 36
  10. 10 TB 3 SF 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 4% of them, 49ers 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+0.1%
Buccaneers by 9–160.5%
Buccaneers by 1–82.8%
Level after regulation0.5%
49ers by 1–89.7%
49ers by 9–1619.7%
49ers by 17+66.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.1 points to the 49ers: the final margin was 49ers by 28, without the luck 49ers by 12.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Buccaneers 8 for 62 yards, 49ers 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:56 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Keanu Neal), 15 yards, wiping out the play +4% SF +1.3 pts
Q1 7:28 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% TB +1.6 pts
Q1 5:43 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +20% SF +7.8 pts
Q1 0:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Keanu Neal), 7 yards +1% SF +1.0 pts
Q2 6:42 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Rakeem Nunez-Roches), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.4 pts
Q2 0:28 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% SF +3.0 pts
Q3 9:04 False Start on the 49ers (Tyler Kroft), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.8 pts
Q3 3:48 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.8 pts
Q4 12:16 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Chris Godwin), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% SF +3.2 pts
Q4 8:48 Illegal Forward Pass on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 5 yards 0% SF +0.4 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:56 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Keanu Neal), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2365 snaps before, position avg 1 per 548 +4% SF SF: Touchdown
2 Q1 13:54 The 49ers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% SF SF: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:22 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% SF TB: Missed field goal
4 Q1 8:14 R. Succop missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 17 of 26 from 45+ before +6% SF TB: Punt
5 Q1 7:28 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% TB TB: Punt
6 Q1 5:43 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +20% SF SF: Touchdown
7 Q2 7:55 The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +4% SF SF: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:28 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 28 flags in 3787 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +3% SF SF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF QB), out, replaced by b.purdy · 7.4 pts
  • Tristan Wirfs (TB T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (TB CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Mike Edwards (TB FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Shaquil Barrett (TB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 25% · 49ers 75%

Final margin
49ers by 28
Luck in points
15.1 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 12.9
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 4% · 49ers 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Buccaneers · 49ers

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