Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022
Jaguars at Titans, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?
The Jaguars beat the Titans 36–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Titans.
An off day for the Titans: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:53 left): the Titans were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 17 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Final
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 36 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Jaguars about even · −7 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jaguars win 9, Titans win 1.
- 1 JAX 46 TEN 14
- 2 JAX 37 TEN 12
- 3 JAX 40 TEN 19
- 4 JAX 34 TEN 17
- 5 JAX 37 TEN 22
- 6 JAX 36 TEN 24
- 7 JAX 22 TEN 13
- 8 JAX 13 TEN 7
- 9 JAX 19 TEN 17
- 10 JAX 23 TEN 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Titans
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
40 points apart for the Titans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained | +0.35 | +0.09 | better by 0.27 |
| Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.22 | +0.16 | worse by 0.06 |
| Titans offenseEPA per play gained | +0.22 | +0.10 | better by 0.12 |
| Titans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.35 | +0.09 | worse by 0.27 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jaguars win 93% of them, Titans 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jaguars by 17+ | 59.9% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 22.0% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 4.6% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Titans by 17+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Patterson, 37 yds made · 90% expected
- R. Patterson, 43 yds made · 82% expected
- R. Patterson, 33 yds made · 94% expected
Penalties: Jaguars 9 for 70 yards, Titans 5 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:03 | Defensive Offside on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 12:55 | Illegal Contact on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% TEN +0.1 pts |
| Q2 12:15 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Chris Manhertz), 10 yards | +1% TEN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:01 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Evan Engram), 10 yards | +3% TEN +1.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards | +3% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 13:07 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% TEN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 8:39 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Titans (Bud Dupree), 3 yards · pre-snap | 0% JAX +0.4 pts |
| Q3 7:53 | Illegal Crackback on the Titans (Geoff Swaim), 12 yards | +2% JAX +1.4 pts |
| Q3 7:53 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JAX 0.0 pts |
| Q3 5:29 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Chris Claybrooks), 10 yards | 0% TEN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:56 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Terrance Mitchell), 20 yards | +1% JAX +3.9 pts |
| Q3 1:00 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:45 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JAX +0.7 pts |
| Q4 9:26 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Robert Woods), 10 yards | 0% JAX +1.4 pts |
Jaguars penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:53 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Titans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +17% JAX | TEN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:07 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +8% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 4:26 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +8% JAX | JAX: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 3:22 | Z. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 73 catchable balls before this | +6% TEN | JAX: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 3:17 | The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedZ. Jones dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 74 catchable balls before this | +11% TEN | JAX: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 2:00 | The Titans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% JAX | TEN: End of half |
| 7 | Q2 0:27 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +8% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 13:07 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% TEN | TEN: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Denico Autry (TEN DE), out · 0.4 pts
- David Long (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out · 0.2 pts
- Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Andre Cisco (JAX SS), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jaguars 90% · Titans 10%
- Final margin
- Jaguars by 14
- Luck in points
- 5.7 for the Jaguars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jaguars by 8.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Jaguars 93% · Titans 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · 
Jaguars · 
Titans
More from Week 14 2022
- Raiders at Rams LA 17–16 · replay 19% for the winner
- Ravens at Steelers BAL 16–14 · replay 28% for the winner
- Browns at Bengals CIN 23–10 · replay 92% for the winner
- Texans at Cowboys DAL 27–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions DET 34–23 · replay 87% for the winner
- Jets at Bills BUF 20–12 · replay 95% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants PHI 48–22 · replay 93% for the winner
- Chiefs at Broncos KC 34–28 · replay 99% for the winner
- Panthers at Seahawks CAR 30–24 · replay 55% for the winner
- Buccaneers at 49ers SF 35–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Dolphins at Chargers LAC 23–17 · replay 76% for the winner
- Patriots at Cardinals NE 27–13 · replay 82% for the winner