luckadjusted

Week 14 2022 · December 12, 2022

Patriots at Cardinals, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Cardinals 27–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 8 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:42 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 40 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 27
Arizona Cardinals 13

December 12, 2022 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −2

Luck index +18 Patriots about even · −18 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 8, Cardinals win 2.

  1. 1 NE 38 ARI 7
  2. 2 NE 33 ARI 10
  3. 3 NE 32 ARI 13
  4. 4 NE 45 ARI 31
  5. 5 NE 31 ARI 20
  6. 6 NE 37 ARI 29
  7. 7 NE 17 ARI 12
  8. 8 NE 30 ARI 28
  9. 9 NE 20 ARI 24
  10. 10 NE 23 ARI 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 82% of them, Cardinals 18%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+35.9%
Patriots by 9–1621.6%
Patriots by 1–823.1%
Level after regulation1.3%
Cardinals by 1–811.3%
Cardinals by 9–165.2%
Cardinals by 17+1.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 14, without the luck Patriots by 9.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 50 yds missed · 73% expected
  • M. Prater, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Prater, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • N. Folk, 51 yds made · 73% expected
  • N. Folk, 23 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Patriots 8 for 80 yards, Cardinals 8 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:22 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.8 pts
Q1 9:18 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 4 yards +1% NE +0.4 pts
Q1 6:36 Illegal Shift on the Cardinals (Marquise Brown), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% NE +1.9 pts
Q1 5:08 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 3 yards +1% ARI +0.3 pts
Q2 12:00 Face Mask on the Cardinals (Trayvon Mullen), 14 yards +3% NE +1.2 pts
Q2 11:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 39 yards +11% ARI +2.8 pts
Q2 7:27 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.9 pts
Q3 12:57 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Patriots, 10 yards +4% ARI +0.6 pts
Q3 8:44 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% NE +0.7 pts
Q3 5:48 Illegal Contact on the Patriots, 5 yards 0% NE +0.4 pts
Q3 4:46 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NE +0.6 pts
Q4 11:56 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% ARI +1.1 pts
Q4 9:49 Illegal Shift on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% NE +2.2 pts
Q4 8:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 8 yards 0% ARI +1.2 pts
Q4 5:33 Illegal Touch Pass on the Cardinals (A.J. Green), 0 yards 0% NE 0.0 pts
Q4 3:42 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (A.J. Green), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% NE +1.6 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:41 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +9% ARI ARI: Missed field goal
2 Q2 11:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots, 39 yardsJudgment calls +11% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 Q2 8:41 The Patriots converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% NE NE: Punt
4 Q2 0:36 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +11% NE ARI: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 0:10 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NE NE: Field goal
6 Q3 8:50 The Cardinals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% ARI ARI: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 8:44 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% NE ARI: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 5:42 The Cardinals fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +40% NE ARI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Byron Murphy (ARI CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • D.J. Humphries (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Rondale Moore (ARI WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Rashaad Coward (ARI T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Pugh (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jakobi Meyers (NE WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Marcus Cannon (NE T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Mills (NE CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Yodny Cajuste (NE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jake Bailey (NE P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 95% · Cardinals 5%

Final margin
Patriots by 14
Luck in points
4.1 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 9.9
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 82% · Cardinals 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Patriots · Cardinals

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