luckadjusted

Week 14 2022 · December 8, 2022

Raiders at Rams, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The Rams stole one. They beat the Raiders 17–16, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 68% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:30 left): Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders (Jerry Tillery), 15 yards, worth 16 points of win probability to the Rams. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:10 left): the Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throw.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 16
Los Angeles Rams 17

December 8, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −6.5

Luck index +81 Rams very lucky · −81 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 8, Rams win 2.

  1. 1 LV 38 LA 10
  2. 2 LV 34 LA 13
  3. 3 LV 37 LA 20
  4. 4 LV 27 LA 13
  5. 5 LV 20 LA 10
  6. 6 LV 31 LA 23
  7. 7 LV 22 LA 17
  8. 8 LV 9 LA 7
  9. 9 LV 17 LA 20
  10. 10 LV 17 LA 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 81% of them, Rams 19%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+28.4%
Raiders by 9–1623.3%
Raiders by 1–828.3%
Level after regulation2.6%
Rams by 1–810.8%
Rams by 9–165.1%
Rams by 17+1.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Rams by 1, without the luck Rams by 6.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 52 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Gay, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • D. Carlson, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 61 yds missed · 60% expected
  • D. Carlson, 36 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 7 for 94 yards, Rams 7 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:09 Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams, 5 yards +2% LV +0.9 pts
Q1 9:13 Illegal Formation on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.5 pts
Q1 7:03 Defensive Holding on the Rams (Bobby Wagner), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% LV +0.2 pts
Q2 13:40 Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams, 5 yards +2% LV +0.9 pts
Q3 12:10 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Jakob Johnson), 10 yards +3% LA +0.7 pts
Q3 6:45 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Robert Rochell), 10 yards +3% LV +0.9 pts
Q3 5:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Tre'von Moehrig), 41 yards +7% LA +2.9 pts
Q3 3:44 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +3% LV +0.9 pts
Q3 3:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams, 15 yards +3% LV +1.4 pts
Q4 11:02 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 6 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +1.9 pts
Q4 10:53 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% LV +2.7 pts
Q4 8:41 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +1.0 pts
Q4 1:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Amik Robertson), 12 yards, wiping out the play +13% LA +4.6 pts
Q4 1:30 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders (Jerry Tillery), 15 yards +16% LA +1.1 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 4% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:42 The Raiders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +13% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q2 9:48 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedD. Turner dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 0 catchable balls before this +8% LA LV: Field goal
3 Q2 5:37 The Rams converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% LA LA: Turnover
4 Q2 0:56 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% LA LV: Punt
5 Q3 3:13 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Rams, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% LV LA: Missed field goal
6 Q4 1:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Amik Robertson), 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 704 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +13% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:30 The game turned hereUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Raiders (Jerry Tillery), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 19 flags in 2523 snaps before, position avg 1 per 303 +16% LA LA: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:10 The Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +90% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matthew Stafford (LA QB), out (IR), replaced by b.mayfield · 3.0 pts
  • Cooper Kupp (LA WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Aaron Donald (LA DT), out · 0.9 pts
  • Allen Robinson (LA WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Alaric Jackson (LA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chandler Brewer (LA T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • A'Shawn Robinson (LA DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Bobby Evans (LA G), out · 0.1 pts
  • Terrell Lewis (LA LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Rock Ya-Sin (LV CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Hunter Renfrow (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jayon Brown (LV LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Averett (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Billings (LV DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 45% · Rams 55%

Final margin
Rams by 1
Luck in points
5.8 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 81% · Rams 19% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Raiders · Rams

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