luckadjusted

Week 14 2022 · December 11, 2022

Texans at Cowboys, Week 14 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Texans 27–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 90% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:14 left): the Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 36 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Houston Texans 23
Dallas Cowboys 27

December 11, 2022 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −17

Luck index +22 Cowboys about even · −22 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 2, Cowboys win 8.

  1. 1 HOU 23 DAL 10
  2. 2 HOU 20 DAL 17
  3. 3 HOU 23 DAL 26
  4. 4 HOU 16 DAL 20
  5. 5 HOU 17 DAL 24
  6. 6 HOU 8 DAL 20
  7. 7 HOU 12 DAL 26
  8. 8 HOU 9 DAL 26
  9. 9 HOU 17 DAL 38
  10. 10 HOU 23 DAL 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 22% of them, Cowboys 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+2.7%
Texans by 9–166.7%
Texans by 1–811.6%
Level after regulation1.7%
Cowboys by 1–824.3%
Cowboys by 9–1621.0%
Cowboys by 17+32.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 4, without the luck Cowboys by 1.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. Maher, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 71% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 54 yds made · 65% expected
  • B. Maher, 53 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 4 for 25 yards, Cowboys 3 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:47 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU 0.0 pts
Q2 13:27 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 3:12 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 0:23 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Dorance Armstrong Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.2 pts
Q4 12:16 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Tremon Smith), 10 yards +4% DAL +1.1 pts
Q4 0:14 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% DAL +0.4 pts
Q4 0:14 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.3 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:56 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +18% DAL DAL: Touchdown
2 Q2 3:21 The Cowboys were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% HOU DAL: Field goal
3 Q3 8:23 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +14% HOU DAL: Field goal
4 Q4 14:54 B. Maher made 53-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 13 of 23 from 45+ before +13% DAL DAL: Punt
5 Q4 6:30 The Cowboys fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% DAL DAL: Turnover
6 Q4 3:25 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +13% DAL HOU: Turnover
7 Q4 0:46 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +22% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:14 The Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +36% DAL HOU: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jourdan Lewis (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandin Cooks (HOU WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 34% · Cowboys 66%

Final margin
Cowboys by 4
Luck in points
2.2 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Texans 22% · Cowboys 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2022 games · Texans · Cowboys

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