luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · December 15, 2022–December 19

Week 15 2022: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Jaguars beat the Cowboys 40–34 in a game they win 36% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 15 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 20–12 @ Commanders 37% 47% Coin flip
Jaguars 40–34 vs Cowboys 38% 36% Lucky
Steelers 24–16 @ Panthers 43% 87% Deserved
Lions 20–17 @ Jets 44% 68% Deserved

Week 15 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jaguars W 40–34 vs Cowboys 36% +64
2 Raiders W 30–24 vs Patriots 41% +59
3 Giants W 20–12 @ Commanders 47% +53
4 Bengals W 34–23 @ Buccaneers 47% +53
5 Saints W 21–18 vs Falcons 67% +33
6 Lions W 20–17 @ Jets 68% +32
7 Bills W 32–29 vs Dolphins 71% +29
8 Browns W 13–3 vs Ravens 79% +21
9 Steelers W 24–16 @ Panthers 87% +13
10 Broncos W 24–15 vs Cardinals 87% +13
11 Eagles W 25–20 @ Bears 89% +11
12 Chargers W 17–14 vs Titans 89% +11
13 49ers W 21–13 @ Seahawks 89% +11
14 Vikings W 39–36 vs Colts 92% +8
15 Chiefs W 30–24 @ Texans 97% +3
16 Packers W 24–12 vs Rams 99% +1
17 Rams L 12–24 @ Packers 1% −1
18 Texans L 24–30 vs Chiefs 3% −3
19 Colts L 36–39 @ Vikings 8% −8
20 Seahawks L 13–21 vs 49ers 11% −11
21 Titans L 14–17 @ Chargers 11% −11
22 Bears L 20–25 vs Eagles 11% −11
23 Cardinals L 15–24 @ Broncos 13% −13
24 Panthers L 16–24 vs Steelers 13% −13
25 Ravens L 3–13 @ Browns 21% −21
26 Dolphins L 29–32 @ Bills 29% −29
27 Jets L 17–20 vs Lions 32% −32
28 Falcons L 18–21 @ Saints 33% −33
29 Buccaneers L 23–34 vs Bengals 53% −53
30 Commanders L 12–20 vs Giants 53% −53
31 Patriots L 24–30 @ Raiders 59% −59
32 Cowboys L 34–40 @ Jaguars 64% −64