luckadjusted

Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022

Eagles at Bears, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Bears 25–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:24 left): Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 25
Chicago Bears 20

December 18, 2022 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Eagles −8.5

Luck index +11 Eagles about even · −11 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Bears win 1.

  1. 1 PHI 48 CHI 13
  2. 2 PHI 43 CHI 17
  3. 3 PHI 29 CHI 7
  4. 4 PHI 24 CHI 6
  5. 5 PHI 34 CHI 20
  6. 6 PHI 21 CHI 10
  7. 7 PHI 29 CHI 21
  8. 8 PHI 24 CHI 20
  9. 9 PHI 33 CHI 31
  10. 10 PHI 20 CHI 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 89% of them, Bears 11%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+49.7%
Eagles by 9–1621.3%
Eagles by 1–816.8%
Level after regulation1.5%
Bears by 1–86.7%
Bears by 9–163.0%
Bears by 17+1.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 points to the Bears: the final margin was Eagles by 5, without the luck Eagles by 5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 32 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Elliott, 38 yds missed · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 2 for 25 yards, Bears 6 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% PHI +2.4 pts
Q1 14:16 False Start on the Bears (Ryan Griffin), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q1 13:20 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q2 12:40 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +2% CHI +0.9 pts
Q2 1:29 Illegal Contact on the Bears, 5 yards 0% CHI +0.2 pts
Q4 7:24 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +21% PHI +3.2 pts
Q4 4:20 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Eagles (Zach Pascal), 15 yards +1% CHI +1.3 pts
Q4 4:20 Encroachment on the Bears, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% PHI 0.0 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:03 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedD. Pettis dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 22 catchable balls before this +9% PHI CHI: Punt
2 Q1 7:47 The Eagles converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +9% PHI PHI: Turnover
3 Q2 5:29 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Eagles threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% CHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q2 1:11 The Eagles converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +13% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:48 The Eagles converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +14% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:29 J. Elliott missed 38-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +12% CHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 7:24 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +21% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 5:35 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +16% PHI PHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevor Siemian (CHI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.fields · 0.9 pts
  • Darnell Mooney (CHI WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Eddie Jackson (CHI SS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Larry Borom (CHI T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kindle Vildor (CHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Lucas Patrick (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Arryn Siposs (PHI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 82% · Bears 18%

Final margin
Eagles by 5
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 89% · Bears 11% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Eagles · Bears

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