luckadjusted

Week 15 2022 · December 19, 2022

Rams at Packers, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Rams 24–12, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:56 left): the Rams converted 3rd & 15, worth 8 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 12
Green Bay Packers 24

December 19, 2022 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −8

Luck index +1 Packers about even · −1 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 0, Packers win 10.

  1. 1 LA 14 GB 17
  2. 2 LA 10 GB 19
  3. 3 LA 14 GB 26
  4. 4 LA 14 GB 29
  5. 5 LA 17 GB 34
  6. 6 LA 6 GB 26
  7. 7 LA 6 GB 28
  8. 8 LA 10 GB 34
  9. 9 LA 7 GB 35
  10. 10 LA 3 GB 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 1% of them, Packers 99%. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+0.0%
Rams by 9–160.1%
Rams by 1–80.6%
Level after regulation0.2%
Packers by 1–83.0%
Packers by 9–1610.7%
Packers by 17+85.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.2 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 12, without the luck Packers by 4.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • M. Gay, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Gay, 55 yds made · 61% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 8 for 76 yards, Packers 4 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:40 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.4 pts
Q1 3:03 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 12:43 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Rudy Ford), 15 yards +5% LA +1.3 pts
Q2 0:46 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Jonathan Garvin), 10 yards +3% LA +1.2 pts
Q3 14:23 Defensive Holding on the Rams, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% GB +1.7 pts
Q3 8:55 Illegal Contact on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 5 yards +2% GB +1.9 pts
Q3 7:13 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% GB +1.6 pts
Q3 5:43 Face Mask on the Rams, 15 yards 0% GB +1.4 pts
Q3 2:25 Low Block on the Packers (Jaire Alexander), 15 yards +1% LA +2.5 pts
Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams, 16 yards +2% GB +1.7 pts
Q4 11:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Greg Gaines), 15 yards 0% GB +2.0 pts
Q4 10:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Adrian Amos), 40 yards +3% LA +3.4 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:56 The Rams converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +8% LA LA: Punt
2 Q1 11:37 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% GB LA: Punt
3 Q2 12:43 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Rudy Ford), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1410 snaps before, position avg 1 per 473 +5% LA LA: Field goal
4 Q2 2:00 The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% LA LA: Field goal
5 Q2 1:48 The Rams converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +6% LA LA: Field goal
6 Q2 1:06 T. Atwell dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 13 catchable balls before this +6% GB LA: Field goal
7 Q2 1:02 The Rams got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% LA LA: Field goal
8 Q3 14:23 Defensive Holding on the Rams, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out · 1.4 pts
  • Eric Stokes (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Rashan Gary (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Krys Barnes (GB LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Matthew Stafford (LA QB), out (IR), replaced by b.mayfield · 3.0 pts
  • Cooper Kupp (LA WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Aaron Donald (LA DT), out · 0.9 pts
  • Allen Robinson (LA WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Alaric Jackson (LA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • A'Shawn Robinson (LA DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chandler Brewer (LA T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bobby Evans (LA G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 10% · Packers 90%

Final margin
Packers by 12
Luck in points
7.2 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Rams 1% · Packers 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Rams · Packers

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