luckadjusted

Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022

Patriots at Raiders, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Patriots 30–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:03 left): Return touchdown by the Raiders, worth 100 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

New England Patriots 24
Las Vegas Raiders 30

December 18, 2022 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −1

Luck index +59 Raiders lucky · −59 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 6, Raiders win 4.

  1. 1 NE 40 LV 17
  2. 2 NE 27 LV 10
  3. 3 NE 26 LV 13
  4. 4 NE 40 LV 31
  5. 5 NE 14 LV 9
  6. 6 NE 25 LV 23
  7. 7 NE 19 LV 22
  8. 8 NE 17 LV 23
  9. 9 NE 13 LV 23
  10. 10 NE 17 LV 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 59% of them, Raiders 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+14.9%
Patriots by 9–1616.4%
Patriots by 1–826.4%
Level after regulation2.7%
Raiders by 1–820.3%
Raiders by 9–1612.5%
Raiders by 17+6.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Raiders by 6, without the luck Raiders by 7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 49 yds made · 80% expected
  • N. Folk, 24 yds made · 100% expected
  • N. Folk, 47 yds made · 80% expected
  • N. Folk, 54 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Patriots 6 for 30 yards, Raiders 13 for 90 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:33 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.5 pts
Q1 9:09 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% NE +1.8 pts
Q1 5:29 False Start on the Raiders (Foster Moreau), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.6 pts
Q2 12:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Amik Robertson), 15 yards +4% NE +1.9 pts
Q2 11:55 False Start on the Patriots (Jonnu Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LV +1.4 pts
Q2 5:51 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +3% NE +1.6 pts
Q2 4:28 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.5 pts
Q2 1:23 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LV +0.5 pts
Q2 0:27 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.5 pts
Q2 0:19 Illegal Contact on the Patriots, 5 yards +2% LV +0.1 pts
Q2 0:15 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Jabrill Peppers), 5 yards 0% NE 0.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Raiders (Bilal Nichols), 5 yards 0% NE +1.1 pts
Q3 11:09 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.7 pts
Q3 1:21 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Jakob Johnson), 9 yards +1% NE +0.6 pts
Q4 13:32 Illegal Contact on the Raiders (Tre'von Moehrig), 6 yards +5% NE +1.0 pts
Q4 10:37 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.5 pts
Q4 7:27 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards +7% NE +0.9 pts
Q4 7:15 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.9 pts
Q4 3:09 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.6 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:26 The Patriots converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% NE NE: Field goal
2 Q2 0:35 Blocked punt by the RaidersSpecial teams +11% LV LV: Touchdown
3 Q3 12:11 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +16% NE LV: Punt
4 Q3 0:28 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% NE LV: Punt
5 Q4 7:32 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedH. Henry dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 35 catchable balls before this +14% LV NE: Punt
6 Q4 7:27 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% NE NE: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:20 The Patriots converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% NE NE: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 0:03 The game turned hereThe Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Patriots fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the RaidersSpecial teams +100% LV –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rock Ya-Sin (LV CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Divine Deablo (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jayon Brown (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Bars (LV G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Averett (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Billings (LV DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • DeVante Parker (NE WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Marcus Cannon (NE T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jalen Mills (NE CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jack Jones (NE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jake Bailey (NE P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 10% · Raiders 90%

Final margin
Raiders by 6
Luck in points
1.0 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 59% · Raiders 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Patriots · Raiders

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