luckadjusted

Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022

Giants at Commanders, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Commanders 20–12, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Giants win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:13 left): the Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 44 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 20
Washington Commanders 12

December 18, 2022 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −4.5

Luck index +53 Giants lucky · −53 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 5, Commanders win 5.

  1. 1 NYG 31 WAS 10
  2. 2 NYG 30 WAS 17
  3. 3 NYG 18 WAS 10
  4. 4 NYG 22 WAS 17
  5. 5 NYG 26 WAS 24
  6. 6 NYG 12 WAS 14
  7. 7 NYG 14 WAS 20
  8. 8 NYG 16 WAS 24
  9. 9 NYG 3 WAS 17
  10. 10 NYG 17 WAS 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 47% of them, Commanders 53%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+8.9%
Giants by 9–1614.8%
Giants by 1–821.8%
Level after regulation5.8%
Commanders by 1–822.8%
Commanders by 9–1615.3%
Commanders by 17+10.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.5 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 8, without the luck Giants by 1.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 41 yds made · 81% expected
  • G. Gano, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Slye, 51 yds made · 62% expected
  • G. Gano, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • Extra point missed · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 5 for 30 yards, Commanders 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:21 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yards +1% WAS +0.4 pts
Q1 7:43 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.5 pts
Q1 3:33 Delay of Game on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.6 pts
Q1 3:33 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.5 pts
Q1 1:08 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 13:45 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYG +2.0 pts
Q2 3:08 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 10:40 Illegal Motion on the Commanders (Logan Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 8:38 Offensive Pass Interference on the Commanders, 10 yards +1% NYG 0.0 pts
Q3 4:44 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +4% WAS +1.1 pts
Q4 1:03 Illegal Formation on the Commanders (Terry McLaurin), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +25% NYG +3.6 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:27 The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +9% WAS WAS: Punt
2 Q2 13:18 The Commanders fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +31% NYG WAS: Punt
3 Q3 0:40 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% WAS NYG: Punt
4 Q4 13:27 The Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% WAS WAS: Field goal
5 Q4 12:36 J. Slye made 51-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 31 of 45 from 45+ before +10% WAS WAS: Turnover
6 Q4 6:13 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Commanders fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +44% NYG WAS: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 1:03 Illegal Formation on the Commanders (Terry McLaurin), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 3628 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +25% NYG NYG: End of game
8 Q4 0:56 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Benjamin St-Juste (WAS CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyler Larsen (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Xavier McKinney (NYG FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Rodarius Williams (NYG CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Joshua Ezeudu (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 45% · Commanders 55%

Final margin
Giants by 8
Luck in points
6.5 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 1.5
Replay with same day's form
Giants 47% · Commanders 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Giants · Commanders

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