luckadjusted

Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022

Steelers at Panthers, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Panthers 24–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Panthers: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Steelers they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Panthers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:10 left): the Panthers converted 3rd & 13, worth 14 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Carolina Panthers 16

December 18, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −2.5

Luck index +13 Steelers about even · −13 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 9, Panthers win 1.

  1. 1 PIT 34 CAR 7
  2. 2 PIT 35 CAR 14
  3. 3 PIT 27 CAR 10
  4. 4 PIT 27 CAR 13
  5. 5 PIT 12 CAR 0
  6. 6 PIT 19 CAR 9
  7. 7 PIT 27 CAR 20
  8. 8 PIT 19 CAR 14
  9. 9 PIT 12 CAR 10
  10. 10 PIT 16 CAR 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Panthers

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Steelers they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.

38 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Steelers offenseEPA per play gained +0.26 +0.05 better by 0.22
Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.01 +0.13 better by 0.12
Panthers offenseEPA per play gained +0.01 +0.03 worse by 0.02
Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.26 +0.06 worse by 0.21

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 87% of them, Panthers 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+39.2%
Steelers by 9–1626.6%
Steelers by 1–820.9%
Level after regulation1.6%
Panthers by 1–88.9%
Panthers by 9–162.2%
Panthers by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Steelers by 8, without the luck Steelers by 10.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 76% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 52 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 7 for 81 yards, Panthers 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:48 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +1% PIT +0.9 pts
Q1 1:45 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers, 5 yards +2% PIT +1.0 pts
Q2 10:50 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q2 10:28 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.7 pts
Q2 8:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 15 yards +4% PIT +1.0 pts
Q2 6:59 False Start on the Panthers (D.J. Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% PIT +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Blindside Block on the Steelers (Miles Killebrew), 9 yards +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q3 7:13 Taunting on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 15 yards 0% CAR +0.8 pts
Q3 0:22 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers (Marcus Allen), 15 yards +2% CAR +1.5 pts
Q4 10:21 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% CAR +1.7 pts
Q4 8:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 27 yards +3% CAR +2.6 pts
Q4 5:29 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.6 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:43 The Panthers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:10 The Panthers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +14% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:19 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q2 10:12 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +13% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:58 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +5% PIT CAR: Punt
6 Q3 12:03 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:21 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 16 flags in 3135 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +8% CAR CAR: Field goal
8 Q4 7:52 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% CAR CAR: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR SS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Myles Jack (PIT LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 97% · Panthers 3%

Final margin
Steelers by 8
Luck in points
2.2 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 10.2
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 87% · Panthers 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Steelers · Panthers

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