luckadjusted

Week 15 2022 · December 18, 2022

Cardinals at Broncos, Week 15 2022: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Cardinals 24–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:35 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 12 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 15
Denver Broncos 24

December 18, 2022 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −1.5

Luck index +13 Broncos about even · −13 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, Broncos win 9.

  1. 1 ARI 41 DEN 34
  2. 2 ARI 7 DEN 9
  3. 3 ARI 23 DEN 27
  4. 4 ARI 31 DEN 39
  5. 5 ARI 16 DEN 28
  6. 6 ARI 12 DEN 26
  7. 7 ARI 20 DEN 37
  8. 8 ARI 6 DEN 27
  9. 9 ARI 14 DEN 40
  10. 10 ARI 3 DEN 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 13% of them, Broncos 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+1.0%
Cardinals by 9–163.2%
Cardinals by 1–87.6%
Level after regulation1.6%
Broncos by 1–817.2%
Broncos by 9–1621.3%
Broncos by 17+48.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 9, without the luck Broncos by 2.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 52 yds made · 67% expected
  • B. McManus, 38 yds missed · 89% expected
  • M. Prater, 45 yds made · 76% expected
  • M. Prater, 50 yds made · 67% expected
  • M. Prater, 55 yds made · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 7 for 46 yards, Broncos 4 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:16 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +7% ARI +1.4 pts
Q2 3:59 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos, 4 yards +1% ARI +0.4 pts
Q2 0:21 Illegal Shift on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.4 pts
Q2 0:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 12 yards +10% ARI +0.9 pts
Q3 11:37 Illegal Formation on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% DEN +1.6 pts
Q3 10:14 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Baron Browning), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.6 pts
Q3 10:06 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +6% DEN +1.8 pts
Q3 5:58 Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Trace McSorley), 11 yards +3% DEN +1.0 pts
Q3 3:22 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DEN +0.6 pts
Q4 12:58 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.3 pts
Q4 10:18 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals, 5 yards +1% DEN +0.5 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:14 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedD. Hopkins dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 62 catchable balls before this +8% DEN ARI: Punt
2 Q1 2:35 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% DEN ARI: Field goal
3 Q2 6:27 The Broncos fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% DEN DEN: Punt
4 Q2 0:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 12 yardsJudgment calls +10% ARI ARI: Field goal
5 Q3 9:00 M. Prater made 55-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 31 of 46 from 45+ before +9% ARI ARI: Punt
6 Q3 3:10 The Broncos converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% DEN DEN: Turnover
7 Q3 0:01 The Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% ARI DEN: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:18 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals, 5 yardsJudgment calls +9% DEN ARI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Russell Wilson (DEN QB), out, replaced by b.rypien · 4.4 pts
  • Courtland Sutton (DEN WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Dre'Mont Jones (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kendall Hinton (DEN WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jonas Griffith (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mitchell Fraboni (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by c.mccoy · 3.8 pts
  • Byron Murphy (ARI CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Rondale Moore (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • D.J. Humphries (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Rashaad Coward (ARI T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Marco Wilson (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Antonio Hamilton (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 19% · Broncos 81%

Final margin
Broncos by 9
Luck in points
6.3 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 2.7
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 13% · Broncos 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2022 games · Cardinals · Broncos

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