2022 season · final
Detroit Lions, 2022: game by game
The Lions went 9–8 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.5 wins. Luck added 1.5: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5.
Every game
How often the Lions win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Eagles | L 35–38 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 2 | vs Commanders | W 36–27 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 3 | @ Vikings | L 24–28 | 23% | −23 |
| Week 4 | vs Seahawks | L 45–48 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 5 | @ Patriots | L 0–29 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 7 | @ Cowboys | L 6–24 | 48% | −48 |
| Week 8 | vs Dolphins | L 27–31 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 9 | vs Packers | W 15–9 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 10 | @ Bears | W 31–30 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 11 | @ Giants | W 31–18 | 36% | +64 |
| Week 12 | vs Bills | L 25–28 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 13 | vs Jaguars | W 40–14 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 14 | vs Vikings | W 34–23 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 15 | @ Jets | W 20–17 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 16 | @ Panthers | L 23–37 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 17 | vs Bears | W 41–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 18 | @ Packers | W 20–16 | 57% | +43 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Lions’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.21 | +3.9 |
| Injuries | +0.18 | +6.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.17 | −1.7 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.15 | +11.0 |
| Drops | +0.15 | −1.0 |
| Rest | +0.06 | +2.2 |
| Judgment calls | −0.09 | −5.3 |