luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Lions at Patriots, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Lions 29–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:40 left): Return touchdown by the Patriots, worth 33 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Detroit Lions 0
New England Patriots 29

October 9, 2022 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −3

Luck index +12 Patriots about even · −12 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lions win 1, Patriots win 9.

  1. 1 DET 27 NE 20
  2. 2 DET 23 NE 25
  3. 3 DET 20 NE 26
  4. 4 DET 20 NE 27
  5. 5 DET 13 NE 24
  6. 6 DET 21 NE 34
  7. 7 DET 16 NE 32
  8. 8 DET 3 NE 23
  9. 9 DET 7 NE 30
  10. 10 DET 10 NE 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lions win 12% of them, Patriots 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 29.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lions by 17+0.6%
Lions by 9–162.3%
Lions by 1–87.1%
Level after regulation1.9%
Patriots by 1–818.4%
Patriots by 9–1622.3%
Patriots by 17+47.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.5 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 29, without the luck Patriots by 15.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • N. Folk, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • N. Folk, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • N. Folk, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • N. Folk, 29 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lions 7 for 82 yards, Patriots 6 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:23 False Start on the Patriots (Kendrick Bourne), 6 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.7 pts
Q2 14:05 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Davon Godchaux), 5 yards +2% DET +1.2 pts
Q2 10:23 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.1 pts
Q2 8:38 Illegal Contact on the Lions (Derrick Barnes), 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% NE +2.0 pts
Q2 6:59 Offensive Holding on the Lions (T.J. Hockenson), 10 yards +3% NE +0.6 pts
Q2 1:56 Unnecessary Roughness on the Patriots (Joshua Uche), 13 yards +2% DET +1.1 pts
Q2 0:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Jeff Okudah), 22 yards 0% NE +1.5 pts
Q2 0:36 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards 0% DET +0.8 pts
Q3 13:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Jeff Okudah), 25 yards +2% NE +2.6 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Justin Jackson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% NE +2.6 pts
Q4 14:03 Roughing the Passer on the Patriots (Mack Wilson), 9 yards 0% DET +2.4 pts
Q4 13:12 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (Isaiah Buggs), 5 yards 0% NE +0.9 pts
Q4 13:12 False Start on the Patriots (Lil'Jordan Humphrey), 3 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.8 pts

Lions penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Lions were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:18 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +5% NE DET: Turnover
2 Q1 5:38 The Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% NE DET: Punt
3 Q1 4:20 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% NE NE: Field goal
4 Q2 11:07 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% NE DET: Punt
5 Q2 8:00 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% NE NE: Turnover
6 Q2 6:30 The Lions converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% DET DET: Opp touchdown
7 Q2 4:27 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +8% NE DET: Opp touchdown
8 Q2 3:40 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Lions fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PatriotsSpecial teams +33% NE DET: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mac Jones (NE QB), out, replaced by b.zappe · 4.3 pts
  • Amani Oruwariye (DET CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • D'Andre Swift (DET RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tommy Kraemer (DET G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Charles Harris (DET LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lions 4% · Patriots 96%

Final margin
Patriots by 29
Luck in points
13.5 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 15.5
Replay with same day's form
Lions 12% · Patriots 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Lions · Patriots

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