luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Steelers at Bills, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Steelers 38–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:09 left): the Bills converted 3rd & 10, worth 21 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 3
Buffalo Bills 38

October 9, 2022 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −14

Luck index +2 Bills about even · −2 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 PIT 24 BUF 27
  2. 2 PIT 33 BUF 40
  3. 3 PIT 30 BUF 42
  4. 4 PIT 13 BUF 28
  5. 5 PIT 17 BUF 35
  6. 6 PIT 17 BUF 38
  7. 7 PIT 26 BUF 50
  8. 8 PIT 17 BUF 45
  9. 9 PIT 17 BUF 49
  10. 10 PIT 3 BUF 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 2% of them, Bills 98%. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.1%
Steelers by 9–160.3%
Steelers by 1–81.8%
Level after regulation0.4%
Bills by 1–87.0%
Bills by 9–1613.9%
Bills by 17+76.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.2 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 35, without the luck Bills by 25.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 49 yds blocked · 73% expected
  • C. Boswell, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Bass, 35 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Boswell, 33 yds missed · 96% expected
  • C. Boswell, 45 yds missed · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 6 for 54 yards, Bills 5 for 28 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:09 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% PIT +1.9 pts
Q1 2:02 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Zach Gentry), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% BUF +3.0 pts
Q1 0:34 False Start on the Bills, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.6 pts
Q2 7:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Myles Jack), 15 yards +2% BUF +1.2 pts
Q2 0:30 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Von Miller), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.1 pts
Q2 0:15 False Start on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.2 pts
Q3 13:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 7 yards 0% PIT +0.9 pts
Q3 5:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Josh Jackson), 4 yards 0% PIT +0.5 pts
Q3 1:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers, 15 yards 0% BUF +1.4 pts
Q3 0:13 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.5 pts
Q4 5:15 False Start on the Steelers (Chase Claypool), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.5 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:09 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +21% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 13:56 The Steelers fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% BUF PIT: Field goal
3 Q1 10:35 The Steelers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% PIT PIT: Field goal
4 Q1 8:35 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +6% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q1 2:02 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Zach Gentry), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 855 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +6% BUF BUF: Turnover
6 Q2 14:52 The Bills converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +8% BUF BUF: Turnover
7 Q2 13:32 The Bills converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% BUF BUF: Turnover
8 Q2 3:43 C. Boswell missed 33-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +6% BUF PIT: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dawson Knox (BUF TE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Micah Hyde (BUF FS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tremaine Edmunds (BUF LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jordan Poyer (BUF SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Christian Benford (BUF DB), out · 0.4 pts
  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Terrell Edmunds (PIT SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (PIT CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 35
Luck in points
9.2 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 25.8
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 2% · Bills 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Steelers · Bills

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