luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Texans at Jaguars, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Jaguars 13–6, but the Jaguars played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 26 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 70% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 7:26 left): Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars, 15 yards, worth 18 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 13
Jacksonville Jaguars 6

October 9, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −7

Luck index +69 Texans very lucky · −69 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 3, Jaguars win 7.

  1. 1 HOU 27 JAX 12
  2. 2 HOU 17 JAX 9
  3. 3 HOU 16 JAX 13
  4. 4 HOU 15 JAX 17
  5. 5 HOU 13 JAX 19
  6. 6 HOU 15 JAX 23
  7. 7 HOU 6 JAX 17
  8. 8 HOU 6 JAX 20
  9. 9 HOU 10 JAX 27
  10. 10 HOU 3 JAX 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 31% of them, Jaguars 69%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+2.7%
Texans by 9–168.1%
Texans by 1–816.4%
Level after regulation4.9%
Jaguars by 1–825.1%
Jaguars by 9–1622.7%
Jaguars by 17+20.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.6 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 7, without the luck Jaguars by 6.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Patterson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 66% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 64% expected
  • R. Patterson, 45 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 4 for 25 yards, Jaguars 6 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:24 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars, 8 yards +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 7:37 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars, 5 yards +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 5:21 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 2:40 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.2 pts
Q2 0:23 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% HOU +2.2 pts
Q4 14:21 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Desmond King), 5 yards +3% JAX +0.8 pts
Q4 10:12 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.8 pts
Q4 7:59 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Phillip Dorsett), 10 yards +7% JAX +1.0 pts
Q4 7:26 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars, 15 yards +18% HOU +2.5 pts
Q4 6:10 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.7 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 10:12 The Jaguars were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% HOU JAX: Turnover on downs
2 Q4 13:54 The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% JAX JAX: Turnover on downs
3 Q4 12:34 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% HOU JAX: Punt
4 Q4 10:12 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedJ. Agnew dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 8 catchable balls before thisOffensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +16% HOU JAX: Punt
5 Q4 8:27 The Texans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +9% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q4 7:26 The game turned hereUnnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars, 15 yardsJudgment calls +18% HOU HOU: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:00 T. Etienne dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 11 catchable balls before this +8% HOU JAX: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:03 The Jaguars threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Britt (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Moore (HOU WR), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 9% · Jaguars 91%

Final margin
Texans by 7
Luck in points
13.6 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Texans 31% · Jaguars 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Texans · Jaguars

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