luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

49ers at Panthers, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Panthers 37–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:55 left): Return touchdown by the 49ers, worth 24 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 37
Carolina Panthers 15

October 9, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −6

Luck index +18 49ers about even · −18 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 SF 38 CAR 7
  2. 2 SF 21 CAR 0
  3. 3 SF 30 CAR 13
  4. 4 SF 27 CAR 13
  5. 5 SF 19 CAR 9
  6. 6 SF 10 CAR 3
  7. 7 SF 14 CAR 10
  8. 8 SF 12 CAR 10
  9. 9 SF 14 CAR 17
  10. 10 SF 8 CAR 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 82% of them, Panthers 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 22.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+32.2%
49ers by 9–1622.2%
49ers by 1–825.0%
Level after regulation2.5%
Panthers by 1–811.2%
Panthers by 9–165.6%
Panthers by 17+1.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to the 49ers: the final margin was 49ers by 22, without the luck 49ers by 21.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 41 yds missed · 85% expected
  • R. Gould, 49 yds made · 70% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • R. Gould, 43 yds blocked · 81% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: 49ers 9 for 50 yards, Panthers 5 for 33 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 14:18 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the 49ers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% CAR +2.1 pts
Q2 10:39 Illegal Formation on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SF +1.4 pts
Q2 9:39 Illegal Contact on the 49ers, 5 yards +2% CAR +0.3 pts
Q2 9:33 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +4% SF +1.1 pts
Q2 1:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers, 10 yards +4% SF +1.1 pts
Q2 0:37 Defensive Delay of Game on the 49ers (Dre Greenlaw), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.4 pts
Q3 12:03 Low Block on the 49ers (Fred Warner), 1 yard 0% CAR +0.1 pts
Q3 11:50 False Start on the 49ers (George Kittle), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.8 pts
Q3 8:23 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (C.J. Henderson), 8 yards +5% SF +3.4 pts
Q4 12:50 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Panthers, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% SF 0.0 pts
Q4 12:31 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards 0% SF 0.0 pts
Q4 11:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the 49ers (Charles Omenihu), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.7 pts
Q4 5:59 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Charlie Woerner), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CAR +2.9 pts
Q4 4:36 Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +1.0 pts

49ers penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 The 49ers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% SF SF: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:20 The Panthers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +8% CAR CAR: Missed field goal
3 Q1 0:43 The 49ers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedThe 49ers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% SF SF: Field goal
4 Q2 5:47 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedB. Aiyuk dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 17 catchable balls before this +8% CAR SF: Punt
5 Q2 1:48 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50R. Gould had a 43-yard field goal blockedKicks · 81% expected for him +18% CAR CAR: Opp touchdown
6 Q2 0:55 The Panthers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the 49ersSpecial teams +24% SF CAR: Punt
7 Q3 12:03 The Panthers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expectedLow Block on the 49ers (Fred Warner), 1 yardJudgment calls · 6 flags in 3646 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +8% CAR CAR: Touchdown
8 Q3 11:57 The Panthers’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe 49ers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% SF CAR: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jeremy Chinn (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Xavier Woods (CAR FS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Frankie Luvu (CAR LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Trent Williams (SF T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Arik Armstead (SF DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Javon Kinlaw (SF DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Mitchell (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
49ers by 22
Luck in points
0.5 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 21.5
Replay with same day's form
49ers 82% · Panthers 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · 49ers · Panthers

More from Week 5 2022