Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022
Chargers at Browns, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?
The Chargers beat the Browns 30–28, but the Browns played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 46 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:55 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 57 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Final
 Los Angeles Chargers | 30 |
|---|---|
 Cleveland Browns | 28 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +66 Chargers very lucky · −66 Browns
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 3, Browns win 7.
- 1 LAC 37 CLE 20
- 2 LAC 38 CLE 30
- 3 LAC 23 CLE 20
- 4 LAC 31 CLE 33
- 5 LAC 27 CLE 31
- 6 LAC 23 CLE 29
- 7 LAC 10 CLE 19
- 8 LAC 21 CLE 33
- 9 LAC 21 CLE 38
- 10 LAC 13 CLE 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 34% of them, Browns 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 6.0% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 10.1% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 18.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Browns by 1–8 | 27.4% |
| Browns by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Browns by 17+ | 17.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- T. Bertolet, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- C. York, 45 yds missed · 80% expected
- T. Bertolet, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- T. Bertolet, 27 yds made · 97% expected
- C. York, 54 yds missed · 63% expected
Penalties: Chargers 4 for 17 yards, Browns 6 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:48 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Grant Delpit), 15 yards | +3% LAC +1.8 pts |
| Q1 2:34 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLE +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:41 | Face Mask on the Browns, 15 yards | +4% LAC +1.8 pts |
| Q2 6:48 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Browns (John Johnson), 10 yards | +3% LAC +1.7 pts |
| Q2 3:03 | Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Sebastian Joseph-Day), 2 yards | +5% CLE +1.5 pts |
| Q2 1:06 | Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +6% LAC +1.8 pts |
| Q3 14:24 | Defensive Holding on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yards | +2% LAC +0.5 pts |
| Q3 13:03 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +5% CLE +1.3 pts |
| Q3 10:28 | Face Mask on the Browns (Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah), 15 yards | +4% LAC +1.5 pts |
| Q3 6:58 | False Start on the Chargers (Donald Parham), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLE +0.7 pts |
Chargers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Browns’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:05 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedA. Cooper dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 28 catchable balls before this | +9% LAC | CLE: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 12:36 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +9% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 8:55 | The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +10% LAC | CLE: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 6:53 | The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +12% CLE | CLE: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 5:23 | The Browns converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +19% CLE | CLE: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 2:55 | The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +57% LAC | CLE: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:14 | The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +35% CLE | LAC: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:16 | C. York missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before | +36% LAC | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Keenan Allen (LAC WR), out · 0.9 pts
- Joey Bosa (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Dustin Hopkins (LAC K), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 11% · Browns 89%
- Final margin
- Chargers by 2
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Browns by 5.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 34% · Browns 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · 
Chargers · 
Browns
More from Week 5 2022
- Colts at Broncos IND 12–9 · replay 3% for the winner
- Giants vs Packers NYG 27–22 · replay 69% for the winner
- Falcons at Buccaneers TB 21–15 · replay 64% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings MIN 29–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Lions at Patriots NE 29–0 · replay 88% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 13–6 · replay 31% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets NYJ 40–17 · replay 91% for the winner
- Steelers at Bills BUF 38–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Seahawks at Saints NO 39–32 · replay 50% for the winner
- Titans at Commanders TEN 21–17 · replay 37% for the winner
- 49ers at Panthers SF 37–15 · replay 82% for the winner
- Cowboys at Rams DAL 22–10 · replay 32% for the winner
- Eagles at Cardinals PHI 20–17 · replay 35% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 19–17 · replay 40% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs KC 30–29 · replay 59% for the winner