luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Bears at Vikings, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Bears 29–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:45 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 8, worth 12 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Chicago Bears 22
Minnesota Vikings 29

October 9, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −10

Luck index +8 Vikings about even · −8 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 1, Vikings win 9.

  1. 1 CHI 7 MIN 3
  2. 2 CHI 17 MIN 19
  3. 3 CHI 9 MIN 13
  4. 4 CHI 10 MIN 17
  5. 5 CHI 14 MIN 24
  6. 6 CHI 3 MIN 16
  7. 7 CHI 5 MIN 20
  8. 8 CHI 0 MIN 20
  9. 9 CHI 3 MIN 26
  10. 10 CHI 0 MIN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 8% of them, Vikings 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.4%
Bears by 9–161.7%
Bears by 1–85.2%
Level after regulation1.8%
Vikings by 1–817.4%
Vikings by 9–1624.2%
Vikings by 17+49.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.5 points to the Bears: the final margin was Vikings by 7, without the luck Vikings by 12.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 50 yds made · 73% expected
  • G. Joseph, 53 yds missed · 69% expected
  • G. Joseph, 51 yds blocked · 71% expected
  • C. Santos, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • C. Santos, 51 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 6 for 40 yards, Vikings 7 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:15 Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.8 pts
Q1 7:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Patrick Peterson), 20 yards +5% CHI +1.7 pts
Q1 6:15 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 13:50 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Kris Boyd), 10 yards +2% CHI +0.7 pts
Q2 11:43 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Irv Smith Jr.), 10 yards +2% CHI +1.5 pts
Q2 9:47 False Start on the Vikings (K.J. Osborn), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.6 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (D.J. Wonnum), 10 yards +1% CHI +1.0 pts
Q2 0:31 Defensive Offside on the Bears (Robert Quinn), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.1 pts
Q3 5:39 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% MIN +1.9 pts
Q3 0:25 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Johnny Mundt), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% CHI +1.8 pts
Q4 12:59 Defensive Holding on the Bears, 5 yards +9% MIN +3.0 pts
Q4 12:08 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bears (Ihmir Smith-Marsette), 10 yards +6% MIN +0.9 pts
Q4 9:26 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.7 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 12:32 The Bears converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% CHI CHI: Touchdown
2 Q3 5:39 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% MIN MIN: Turnover
3 Q3 3:18 The Bears converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +11% CHI CHI: Field goal
4 Q4 12:59 Defensive Holding on the Bears, 5 yardsJudgment calls +9% MIN MIN: Turnover
5 Q4 12:54 The Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% CHI MIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:42 The Vikings converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +10% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:45 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +12% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:29 The Vikings converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +7% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Cody Whitehair (CHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 4% · Vikings 96%

Final margin
Vikings by 7
Luck in points
5.5 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 12.5
Replay with same day's form
Bears 8% · Vikings 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Bears · Vikings

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