luckadjusted

Week 5 2022 · October 9, 2022

Titans at Commanders, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Commanders 21–17, but the Commanders played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:09 left): the Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 67 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 21
Washington Commanders 17

October 9, 2022 · FedExField · Closing line: Titans −1

Luck index +63 Titans very lucky · −63 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 4, Commanders win 6.

  1. 1 TEN 27 WAS 7
  2. 2 TEN 26 WAS 13
  3. 3 TEN 17 WAS 10
  4. 4 TEN 24 WAS 21
  5. 5 TEN 3 WAS 6
  6. 6 TEN 10 WAS 16
  7. 7 TEN 20 WAS 30
  8. 8 TEN 13 WAS 27
  9. 9 TEN 3 WAS 21
  10. 10 TEN 3 WAS 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 37% of them, Commanders 63%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+5.9%
Titans by 9–1610.8%
Titans by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation3.4%
Commanders by 1–822.5%
Commanders by 9–1618.9%
Commanders by 17+20.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.3 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Titans by 4, without the luck Titans by 12.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Titans 8 for 69 yards, Commanders 9 for 71 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:43 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Commanders (Montez Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.8 pts
Q1 8:29 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 9 yards, wiping out the play +3% TEN +1.7 pts
Q2 12:26 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 12:01 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% WAS +1.0 pts
Q2 10:12 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 7 yards +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q2 8:00 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q2 7:14 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans (Dez Fitzpatrick), 10 yards +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 2:00 Roughing the Passer on the Commanders, 15 yards +7% TEN +1.8 pts
Q3 3:23 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% WAS +0.7 pts
Q3 2:36 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.9 pts
Q3 0:19 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% TEN +1.8 pts
Q4 9:25 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 15 yards +5% WAS +1.5 pts
Q4 9:20 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.7 pts
Q4 7:08 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.7 pts
Q4 1:07 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders, 10 yards +9% TEN +0.7 pts
Q4 0:53 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% TEN +0.5 pts
Q4 0:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 14 yards +9% WAS +1.7 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 12:38 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedR. Woods dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 18 catchable balls before this +9% WAS TEN: Punt
2 Q4 12:35 The Titans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% TEN TEN: Punt
3 Q4 10:42 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +12% WAS TEN: Punt
4 Q4 3:55 The Commanders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% WAS WAS: Turnover
5 Q4 3:20 The Commanders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% WAS WAS: Turnover
6 Q4 1:07 Illegal Use of Hands on the Commanders, 10 yardsJudgment calls +9% TEN TEN: End of game
7 Q4 0:28 The Commanders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +14% WAS WAS: Turnover
8 Q4 0:09 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedThe Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +67% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Samuel Cosmi (WAS T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jahan Dotson (WAS WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Harold Landry (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nate Davis (TEN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Zach Cunningham (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 96% · Commanders 4%

Final margin
Titans by 4
Luck in points
8.3 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 12.3
Replay with same day's form
Titans 37% · Commanders 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · Titans · Commanders

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