Week 5 2022 · October 6, 2022
Colts at Broncos, Week 5 2022: who deserved to win?
The Colts stole one. They beat the Broncos 12–9, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 10 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Colts.
The Colts won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Broncos were 60% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (QOT, 2:38 left): the Broncos were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 74 points of win probability to the Colts.
Final (OT)
 Indianapolis Colts | 12 |
|---|---|
 Denver Broncos | 9 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +97 Colts very lucky · −97 Broncos
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colts win 0, Broncos win 10.
- 1 IND 27 DEN 30
- 2 IND 13 DEN 20
- 3 IND 23 DEN 33
- 4 IND 14 DEN 28
- 5 IND 13 DEN 30
- 6 IND 3 DEN 23
- 7 IND 7 DEN 30
- 8 IND 0 DEN 27
- 9 IND 9 DEN 40
- 10 IND 0 DEN 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Colts won on an off day
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts offenseEPA per play gained | −0.09 | +0.10 | worse by 0.19 |
| Colts defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.10 | +0.10 | better by 0.21 |
| Broncos offenseEPA per play gained | −0.10 | +0.08 | worse by 0.18 |
| Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.09 | +0.07 | better by 0.16 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colts win 3% of them, Broncos 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colts by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 0.5% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 1.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Broncos by 1–8 | 6.5% |
| Broncos by 9–16 | 13.3% |
| Broncos by 17+ | 77.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- B. McManus, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- B. McManus, 44 yds made · 81% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 64% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 51 yds made · 66% expected
- B. McManus, 34 yds blocked · 94% expected
- B. McManus, 45 yds made · 80% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 31 yds made · 95% expected
- C. McLaughlin, 48 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: Colts 8 for 64 yards, Broncos 7 for 49 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:22 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% DEN +2.6 pts |
| Q2 12:03 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:34 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards | +2% DEN +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:36 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts, 14 yards | +2% DEN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 4:56 | Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards | +2% IND +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DEN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:12 | Offside on Free Kick on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DEN 0.0 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:28 | Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% DEN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 13:03 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 15 yards | +10% IND +1.8 pts |
| Q4 8:33 | Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Baron Browning), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IND +0.5 pts |
| Q4 7:50 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards | +4% DEN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:59 | False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% IND +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:51 | Defensive Offside on the Broncos, 4 yards · pre-snap | +6% DEN +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:13 | Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% DEN +0.7 pts |
Colts penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Broncos’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 14:20 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Broncos were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +24% IND | DEN: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 2:19 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedThe Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +26% IND | DEN: End of game |
| 3 | Q4 2:13 | The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +13% IND | IND: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 2:00 | The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +13% IND | IND: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 0:13 | The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedDelay of Game on the Colts, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +15% DEN | IND: Field goal |
| 6 | QOT 5:54 | C. McLaughlin made 48-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 16 of 25 from 45+ before | +18% DEN | – |
| 7 | QOT 3:12 | The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +14% IND | DEN: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | QOT 2:38 | The game turned hereThe Broncos were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +74% IND | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Justin Simmons (DEN FS), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Quinn Meinerz (DEN G), out · 0.5 pts
- Randy Gregory (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Javonte Williams (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Michael Ojemudia (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Shaquille Leonard (IND LB), out · 0.8 pts
- Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out · 0.6 pts
- Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out · 0.3 pts
- Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out · 0.2 pts
- Rigoberto Sanchez (IND P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colts 33% · Broncos 67%
- Final margin
- Colts by 3
- Luck in points
- 7.4 for the Colts
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Broncos by 4.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Colts 3% · Broncos 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2022 games · 
Colts · 
Broncos
More from Week 5 2022
- Giants vs Packers NYG 27–22 · replay 69% for the winner
- Falcons at Buccaneers TB 21–15 · replay 64% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings MIN 29–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Lions at Patriots NE 29–0 · replay 88% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 13–6 · replay 31% for the winner
- Chargers at Browns LAC 30–28 · replay 34% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets NYJ 40–17 · replay 91% for the winner
- Steelers at Bills BUF 38–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Seahawks at Saints NO 39–32 · replay 50% for the winner
- Titans at Commanders TEN 21–17 · replay 37% for the winner
- 49ers at Panthers SF 37–15 · replay 82% for the winner
- Cowboys at Rams DAL 22–10 · replay 32% for the winner
- Eagles at Cardinals PHI 20–17 · replay 35% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 19–17 · replay 40% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs KC 30–29 · replay 59% for the winner