luckadjusted

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

Eagles at Lions, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Lions 38–35, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:36 left): Return touchdown by the Eagles, worth 17 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 38
Detroit Lions 35

September 11, 2022 · Ford Field · Closing line: Eagles −6

Luck index +12 Eagles about even · −12 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Lions win 1.

  1. 1 PHI 39 DET 7
  2. 2 PHI 32 DET 7
  3. 3 PHI 30 DET 10
  4. 4 PHI 31 DET 14
  5. 5 PHI 23 DET 10
  6. 6 PHI 27 DET 17
  7. 7 PHI 23 DET 14
  8. 8 PHI 26 DET 20
  9. 9 PHI 27 DET 24
  10. 10 PHI 16 DET 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 88% of them, Lions 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+47.5%
Eagles by 9–1622.6%
Eagles by 1–818.0%
Level after regulation1.9%
Lions by 1–86.7%
Lions by 9–162.5%
Lions by 17+0.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.9 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 3, without the luck Lions by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Eagles 10 for 61 yards, Lions 7 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:19 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.8 pts
Q1 12:19 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.4 pts
Q1 8:42 False Start on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.8 pts
Q1 5:51 False Start on the Eagles (Quez Watkins), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.8 pts
Q1 4:43 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% DET +1.9 pts
Q2 10:17 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +1.2 pts
Q2 7:52 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.8 pts
Q2 7:52 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 7:00 Offensive Holding on the Lions (T.J. Hockenson), 10 yards +3% PHI +1.0 pts
Q3 11:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Alex Anzalone), 15 yards +2% PHI +1.8 pts
Q3 7:49 Encroachment on the Eagles (Fletcher Cox), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +1.0 pts
Q3 2:45 Disqualification on the Lions (Tracy Walker), 15 yards +4% PHI +1.5 pts
Q3 0:27 Defensive Holding on the Eagles, 5 yards 0% DET +0.4 pts
Q4 12:59 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DET +0.7 pts
Q4 8:31 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% PHI +0.9 pts
Q4 4:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 11 yards +5% DET +0.9 pts
Q4 0:37 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.5 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:43 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% DET DET: Punt
2 Q2 13:00 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +12% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:17 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedOffensive Too Many Men on Field on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% DET PHI: Punt
4 Q2 8:19 The Eagles converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:36 The Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +17% PHI DET: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:46 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% PHI PHI: Field goal
7 Q4 3:56 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +10% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:21 The Eagles converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +16% PHI PHI: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jerry Jacobs (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tommy Kraemer (DET G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Julian Okwara (DET LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 39% · Lions 61%

Final margin
Eagles by 3
Luck in points
5.9 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 88% · Lions 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Eagles · Lions

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