luckadjusted

Week 1 2022 · September 8, 2022

Bills at Rams, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Rams 31–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 8 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Rams.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 15:00 left): the Bills converted 3rd & 7, worth 12 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 31
Los Angeles Rams 10

September 8, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Bills −1

Luck index +16 Bills about even · −16 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 8, Rams win 2.

  1. 1 BUF 33 LA 3
  2. 2 BUF 30 LA 10
  3. 3 BUF 30 LA 13
  4. 4 BUF 35 LA 21
  5. 5 BUF 34 LA 24
  6. 6 BUF 31 LA 23
  7. 7 BUF 20 LA 16
  8. 8 BUF 26 LA 24
  9. 9 BUF 13 LA 16
  10. 10 BUF 23 LA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 84% of them, Rams 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+36.3%
Bills by 9–1622.5%
Bills by 1–824.6%
Level after regulation1.4%
Rams by 1–810.2%
Rams by 9–163.9%
Rams by 17+1.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to the Rams: the final margin was Bills by 21, without the luck Bills by 25.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • M. Gay, 57 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 5 for 35 yards, Rams 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:28 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.4 pts
Q1 1:53 Horse Collar Tackle on the Rams (Justin Hollins), 15 yards +4% BUF +1.8 pts
Q2 7:20 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 5 yards +2% LA +0.6 pts
Q2 2:16 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.5 pts
Q2 1:45 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 5 yards +8% LA +1.5 pts
Q3 10:51 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +8% LA +1.0 pts
Q3 5:11 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +1.0 pts
Q4 9:17 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.6 pts
Q4 7:06 Taunting on the Bills (Dane Jackson), 15 yards 0% LA +1.5 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:03 The Bills converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q2 12:57 The Rams were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% BUF LA: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:54 The Rams converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +8% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:00 The Bills were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% LA BUF: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:45 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2766 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% LA LA: Field goal
6 Q2 0:04 M. Gay made 57-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 21 of 29 from 45+ before +9% LA LA: Punt
7 Q3 10:34 The Bills converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 15:00 The Bills converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Bills got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Van Jefferson (LA WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ike Boettger (BUF G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 100% · Rams 0%

Final margin
Bills by 21
Luck in points
4.1 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 25.1
Replay with same day's form
Bills 84% · Rams 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Bills · Rams

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