luckadjusted

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

Packers at Vikings, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Packers 23–7, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Vikings win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites.

Final

Green Bay Packers 7
Minnesota Vikings 23

September 11, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −2.5

Luck index +57 Vikings lucky · −57 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 6, Vikings win 4.

  1. 1 GB 31 MIN 7
  2. 2 GB 30 MIN 13
  3. 3 GB 28 MIN 16
  4. 4 GB 34 MIN 25
  5. 5 GB 28 MIN 24
  6. 6 GB 38 MIN 36
  7. 7 GB 21 MIN 24
  8. 8 GB 27 MIN 33
  9. 9 GB 13 MIN 24
  10. 10 GB 20 MIN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 57% of them, Vikings 43%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+16.1%
Packers by 9–1615.6%
Packers by 1–824.9%
Level after regulation2.4%
Vikings by 1–820.2%
Vikings by 9–1613.1%
Vikings by 17+7.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 16, without the luck Vikings by 10.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Joseph, 56 yds made · 65% expected
  • G. Joseph, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 2 for 10 yards, Vikings 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 3:57 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.1 pts
Q3 10:45 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Justin Jefferson), 10 yards +1% GB +2.2 pts
Q3 4:43 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.6 pts
Q3 2:56 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GB +0.5 pts
Q4 12:06 False Start on the Packers (De'Vondre Campbell), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.3 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:56 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:21 The Vikings converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +7% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:17 C. Watson dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 0 catchable balls before this +3% MIN GB: Punt
4 Q1 6:18 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% GB MIN: Punt
5 Q1 2:44 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +3% MIN GB: Punt
6 Q2 14:21 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +3% GB MIN: Punt
7 Q2 8:03 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +5% MIN GB: Punt
8 Q2 3:57 G. Joseph made 28-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for himDelay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% GB MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Allen Lazard (GB WR), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 1% · Vikings 99%

Final margin
Vikings by 16
Luck in points
5.2 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 10.8
Replay with same day's form
Packers 57% · Vikings 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Packers · Vikings

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