luckadjusted

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

Raiders at Chargers, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Raiders 24–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:53 left): the Chargers converted 3rd & 8, worth 12 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 19
Los Angeles Chargers 24

September 11, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −3.5

Luck index +12 Chargers about even · −12 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 1, Chargers win 9.

  1. 1 LV 24 LAC 18
  2. 2 LV 7 LAC 9
  3. 3 LV 20 LAC 24
  4. 4 LV 19 LAC 26
  5. 5 LV 13 LAC 22
  6. 6 LV 12 LAC 24
  7. 7 LV 17 LAC 33
  8. 8 LV 21 LAC 41
  9. 9 LV 14 LAC 40
  10. 10 LV 9 LAC 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 12% of them, Chargers 88%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+0.8%
Raiders by 9–162.5%
Raiders by 1–87.2%
Level after regulation1.9%
Chargers by 1–816.9%
Chargers by 9–1624.4%
Chargers by 17+46.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.1 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Chargers by 5, without the luck Chargers by 20.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • D. Carlson, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 55 yds made · 69% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 49 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 3 for 11 yards, Chargers 5 for 21 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 10:08 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders, 1 yard +1% LAC +0.5 pts
Q2 5:49 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Tre' McKitty), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% LV +2.3 pts
Q2 2:29 False Start on the Chargers (Gerald Everett), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.5 pts
Q3 2:18 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.3 pts
Q4 12:33 False Start on the Chargers, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q4 4:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 1 yard 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q4 4:32 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC 0.0 pts
Q4 0:58 Illegal Formation on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.5 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:53 The Chargers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +12% LAC LAC: Field goal
2 Q1 7:33 The Raiders converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +10% LV LV: Field goal
3 Q1 5:37 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% LV LV: Field goal
4 Q2 5:49 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Tre' McKitty), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 271 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +5% LV LV: Turnover
5 Q2 1:40 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +8% LV LAC: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:45 The Raiders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:50 The Raiders converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% LV LV: Field goal
8 Q4 3:42 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +6% LV LAC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tevaughn Campbell (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Parker (LV T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 0% · Chargers 100%

Final margin
Chargers by 5
Luck in points
15.1 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 20.1
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 12% · Chargers 88% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Raiders · Chargers

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