luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · September 8, 2022–September 12

Week 1 2022: who deserved to win

6 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Steelers beat the Bengals 23–20 in a game they win 13% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 1 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Steelers 23–20 @ Bengals 29% 13% Lucky
Bears 19–10 vs 49ers 32% 42% Coin flip
Seahawks 17–16 vs Broncos 33% 36% Lucky
Giants 21–20 @ Titans 34% 47% Coin flip
Browns 26–24 @ Panthers 43% 97% Deserved

Week 1 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Steelers W 23–20 @ Bengals 13% +87
2 Seahawks W 17–16 vs Broncos 36% +64
3 Bears W 19–10 vs 49ers 42% +58
4 Vikings W 23–7 vs Packers 43% +57
5 Commanders W 28–22 vs Jaguars 46% +54
6 Giants W 21–20 @ Titans 47% +53
7 Dolphins W 20–7 vs Patriots 62% +38
8 Saints W 27–26 @ Falcons 63% +37
9 Ravens W 24–9 @ Jets 69% +31
10 Bills W 31–10 @ Rams 84% +16
11 Eagles W 38–35 @ Lions 88% +12
12 Chargers W 24–19 vs Raiders 88% +12
13 Chiefs W 44–21 @ Cardinals 93% +7
14 Buccaneers W 19–3 @ Cowboys 95% +5
15 Browns W 26–24 @ Panthers 97% +3
16 Colts T 20–20 @ Texans 50% 0
17 Texans T 20–20 vs Colts 50% 0
18 Panthers L 24–26 vs Browns 3% −3
19 Cowboys L 3–19 vs Buccaneers 5% −5
20 Cardinals L 21–44 vs Chiefs 7% −7
21 Lions L 35–38 vs Eagles 12% −12
22 Raiders L 19–24 @ Chargers 12% −12
23 Rams L 10–31 vs Bills 16% −16
24 Jets L 9–24 vs Ravens 31% −31
25 Falcons L 26–27 vs Saints 37% −37
26 Patriots L 7–20 @ Dolphins 38% −38
27 Titans L 20–21 vs Giants 53% −53
28 Jaguars L 22–28 @ Commanders 54% −54
29 Packers L 7–23 @ Vikings 57% −57
30 49ers L 10–19 @ Bears 58% −58
31 Broncos L 16–17 @ Seahawks 64% −64
32 Bengals L 20–23 vs Steelers 87% −87