luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · September 15, 2022–September 19

Week 2 2022: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Jets beat the Browns 31–30 in a game they win 2% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 2 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cowboys 20–17 vs Bengals 29% 79% Deserved
Jets 31–30 @ Browns 32% 2% Lucky
Cardinals 29–23 @ Raiders 34% 66% Deserved
Jaguars 24–0 vs Colts 41% 99% Deserved
Dolphins 42–38 @ Ravens 41% 46% Coin flip
Giants 19–16 vs Panthers 47% 74% Deserved
Lions 36–27 vs Commanders 47% 55% Coin flip

Week 2 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jets W 31–30 @ Browns 2% +98
2 Chiefs W 27–24 vs Chargers 33% +67
3 Dolphins W 42–38 @ Ravens 46% +54
4 Lions W 36–27 vs Commanders 55% +45
5 Cardinals W 29–23 @ Raiders 66% +34
6 Buccaneers W 20–10 @ Saints 66% +34
7 49ers W 27–7 vs Seahawks 73% +27
8 Giants W 19–16 vs Panthers 74% +26
9 Patriots W 17–14 @ Steelers 78% +22
10 Cowboys W 20–17 vs Bengals 79% +21
11 Rams W 31–27 vs Falcons 82% +18
12 Packers W 27–10 vs Bears 88% +12
13 Broncos W 16–9 vs Texans 97% +3
14 Jaguars W 24–0 vs Colts 99% +1
15 Eagles W 24–7 vs Vikings 99% +1
16 Bills W 41–7 vs Titans 99% +1
17 Titans L 7–41 @ Bills 1% −1
18 Vikings L 7–24 @ Eagles 1% −1
19 Colts L 0–24 @ Jaguars 1% −1
20 Texans L 9–16 @ Broncos 3% −3
21 Bears L 10–27 @ Packers 12% −12
22 Falcons L 27–31 @ Rams 18% −18
23 Bengals L 17–20 @ Cowboys 21% −21
24 Steelers L 14–17 vs Patriots 22% −22
25 Panthers L 16–19 @ Giants 26% −26
26 Seahawks L 7–27 @ 49ers 27% −27
27 Saints L 10–20 vs Buccaneers 34% −34
28 Raiders L 23–29 vs Cardinals 34% −34
29 Commanders L 27–36 @ Lions 45% −45
30 Ravens L 38–42 vs Dolphins 54% −54
31 Chargers L 24–27 @ Chiefs 67% −67
32 Browns L 30–31 vs Jets 98% −98