Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022
Cardinals at Raiders, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?
The Cardinals beat the Raiders 29–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.
An off day for the Raiders: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 34%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Raiders were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 4:05 left): Return touchdown by the Cardinals, worth 72 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Final (OT)
 Arizona Cardinals | 29 |
|---|---|
 Las Vegas Raiders | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Cardinals lucky · −34 Raiders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cardinals win 7, Raiders win 3.
- 1 ARI 35 LV 10
- 2 ARI 28 LV 10
- 3 ARI 27 LV 14
- 4 ARI 20 LV 10
- 5 ARI 23 LV 16
- 6 ARI 17 LV 13
- 7 ARI 20 LV 17
- 8 ARI 13 LV 16
- 9 ARI 12 LV 20
- 10 ARI 0 LV 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Raiders
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 66% of the time; with this day’s form, 34%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Raiders: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained | −0.11 | +0.12 | worse by 0.24 |
| Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.22 | +0.14 | worse by 0.08 |
| Raiders offenseEPA per play gained | +0.22 | +0.11 | better by 0.12 |
| Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.11 | +0.08 | better by 0.20 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cardinals win 66% of them, Raiders 34%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cardinals by 17+ | 15.8% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 20.5% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 28.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 10.0% |
| Raiders by 17+ | 3.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Carlson, 32 yds made · 96% expected
- D. Carlson, 55 yds made · 69% expected
- D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 99% expected
Penalties: Cardinals 12 for 120 yards, Raiders 10 for 68 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:17 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Michael Dogbe), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LV +0.5 pts |
| Q1 9:41 | Illegal Formation on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ARI +1.2 pts |
| Q1 6:15 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 3 yards | +5% LV +1.7 pts |
| Q1 1:21 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV +0.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARI +0.6 pts |
| Q2 13:33 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards | +4% ARI +1.5 pts |
| Q2 9:35 | Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 15 yards | +3% LV +1.2 pts |
| Q2 7:00 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals, 10 yards | +1% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:57 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% LV +1.5 pts |
| Q2 3:36 | Defensive Holding on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +8% ARI +5.3 pts |
| Q2 1:51 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards | +1% ARI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:36 | Illegal Formation on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% ARI +1.6 pts |
| Q3 14:26 | Face Mask on the Raiders (Bilal Nichols), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +2% ARI +3.0 pts |
| Q3 11:30 | Illegal Formation on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV +1.0 pts |
| Q3 10:05 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (A.J. Green), 10 yards | +1% LV +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:41 | Illegal Formation on the Raiders (Mack Hollins), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARI +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:15 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marco Wilson), 47 yards | +1% LV +2.6 pts |
| Q4 9:56 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% LV +1.9 pts |
| Q4 2:20 | Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Rock Ya-Sin), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% ARI +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:30 | Defensive Holding on the Raiders, 3 yards | +3% ARI +2.7 pts |
| Q4 0:00 | Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LV 0.0 pts |
| QOT 7:40 | False Start on the Cardinals (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% LV +0.6 pts |
Cardinals penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Raiders’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:39 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +9% LV | LV: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 7:45 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +9% LV | LV: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 3:36 | Defensive Holding on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% ARI | ARI: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 0:05 | The Cardinals converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +20% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 0:00 | The Cardinals’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDelay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +20% ARI | ARI: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | QOT 4:45 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedThe Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +41% LV | LV: Opp touchdown |
| 7 | QOT 4:11 | The Raiders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +19% LV | LV: Opp touchdown |
| 8 | QOT 4:05 | The Raiders fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CardinalsSpecial teams | +72% ARI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brandon Parker (LV T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Andre James (LV C), out · 0.4 pts
- Denzel Perryman (LV LB), out · 0.3 pts
- DeAndre Hopkins (ARI WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Antoine Wesley (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cardinals 81% · Raiders 19%
- Final margin
- Cardinals by 6
- Luck in points
- 2.9 for the Raiders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cardinals by 8.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Cardinals 66% · Raiders 34% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · 
Cardinals · 
Raiders
More from Week 2 2022
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 27–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Panthers at Giants NYG 19–16 · replay 74% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 24–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Dolphins at Ravens MIA 42–38 · replay 46% for the winner
- Patriots at Steelers NE 17–14 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jets at Browns NYJ 31–30 · replay 2% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints TB 20–10 · replay 66% for the winner
- Commanders at Lions DET 36–27 · replay 55% for the winner
- Falcons at Rams LA 31–27 · replay 82% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SF 27–7 · replay 73% for the winner
- Bengals at Cowboys DAL 20–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Texans at Broncos DEN 16–9 · replay 97% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 27–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Titans at Bills BUF 41–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Vikings at Eagles PHI 24–7 · replay 99% for the winner