Week 2 2022 · September 19, 2022
Vikings at Eagles, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Vikings 24–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Vikings.
An off day for the Vikings: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 32% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Eagles were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:47 left): the Eagles converted 3rd & 13, worth 11 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 7 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Eagles about even · −1 Vikings
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 0, Eagles win 10.
- 1 MIN 20 PHI 24
- 2 MIN 6 PHI 13
- 3 MIN 20 PHI 31
- 4 MIN 10 PHI 24
- 5 MIN 7 PHI 24
- 6 MIN 17 PHI 38
- 7 MIN 3 PHI 27
- 8 MIN 7 PHI 33
- 9 MIN 6 PHI 36
- 10 MIN 13 PHI 50
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Vikings
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 32% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Vikings: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | +0.06 | +0.11 | worse by 0.05 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.53 | +0.09 | worse by 0.44 |
| Eagles offenseEPA per play gained | +0.53 | +0.14 | better by 0.38 |
| Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.12 | better by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 1% of them, Eagles 99%. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 3.1% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 12.1% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 83.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 89% expected
- J. Elliott, 41 yds blocked · 85% expected
Penalties: Vikings 5 for 25 yards, Eagles 8 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:20 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +7% MIN +3.0 pts |
| Q1 9:09 | Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.4 pts |
| Q1 7:34 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards | +2% MIN +1.0 pts |
| Q1 5:45 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (DeVonta Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% MIN +2.3 pts |
| Q1 1:28 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards | +2% MIN +1.2 pts |
| Q1 0:39 | Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Jonathan Bullard), 5 yards | +2% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:07 | Illegal Contact on the Vikings (Cameron Dantzler), 5 yards | +2% PHI +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:53 | Face Mask on the Eagles (Josh Sweat), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +2% MIN +1.5 pts |
| Q3 13:29 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:06 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:27 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PHI +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:30 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% MIN +3.7 pts |
| Q4 11:49 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Vikings, 5 yards | 0% PHI +0.8 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:20 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% MIN | MIN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:47 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +11% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:05 | The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% PHI | PHI: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 5:45 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (DeVonta Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1060 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 | +5% MIN | MIN: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:07 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +4% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 1:44 | D. Cook dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 6 catchable balls before this | +4% PHI | MIN: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 2:28 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +6% PHI | MIN: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 7:16 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +4% PHI | MIN: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 0% · Eagles 100%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 17
- Luck in points
- 5.6 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eagles by 22.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 1% · Eagles 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · 
Vikings · 
Eagles
More from Week 2 2022
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 27–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Panthers at Giants NYG 19–16 · replay 74% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 24–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Dolphins at Ravens MIA 42–38 · replay 46% for the winner
- Patriots at Steelers NE 17–14 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jets at Browns NYJ 31–30 · replay 2% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints TB 20–10 · replay 66% for the winner
- Commanders at Lions DET 36–27 · replay 55% for the winner
- Falcons at Rams LA 31–27 · replay 82% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SF 27–7 · replay 73% for the winner
- Cardinals at Raiders ARI 29–23 · replay 66% for the winner
- Bengals at Cowboys DAL 20–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Texans at Broncos DEN 16–9 · replay 97% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 27–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Titans at Bills BUF 41–7 · replay 99% for the winner