Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022
Colts at Jaguars, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?
The Jaguars beat the Colts 24–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 10 of 10.
An off day for the Colts: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Colts were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:41 left): the Colts were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 14 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Final
 Indianapolis Colts | 0 |
|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Jaguars about even · −1 Colts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Colts win 0, Jaguars win 10.
- 1 IND 17 JAX 20
- 2 IND 10 JAX 17
- 3 IND 10 JAX 20
- 4 IND 3 JAX 17
- 5 IND 7 JAX 24
- 6 IND 3 JAX 22
- 7 IND 3 JAX 25
- 8 IND 0 JAX 25
- 9 IND 7 JAX 36
- 10 IND 0 JAX 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Colts
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 46% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
44 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colts offenseEPA per play gained | −0.28 | +0.13 | worse by 0.40 |
| Colts defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.25 | +0.10 | worse by 0.14 |
| Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained | +0.25 | +0.06 | better by 0.19 |
| Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.28 | +0.17 | better by 0.44 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Colts win 1% of them, Jaguars 99%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Colts by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Colts by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Colts by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 13.0% |
| Jaguars by 17+ | 80.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Colts 5 for 30 yards, Jaguars 3 for 19 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 9:04 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards | +2% IND +1.1 pts |
| Q2 7:05 | False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JAX +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:06 | False Start on the Colts (Mike Strachan), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JAX +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:20 | False Start on the Jaguars (Chris Claybrooks), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IND +0.4 pts |
| Q3 4:07 | Defensive Holding on the Colts, 5 yards | 0% JAX +0.4 pts |
| Q3 2:14 | Defensive Offside on the Colts (Dayo Odeyingbo), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JAX +0.4 pts |
| Q4 13:05 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% JAX +0.4 pts |
| Q4 11:33 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Parris Campbell), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% JAX +1.2 pts |
Colts penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Jaguars’ chance of winning
As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:05 | The Colts converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +6% IND | IND: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 12:26 | N. Hines dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 8 catchable balls before this | +4% JAX | IND: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 11:41 | The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Colts threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +14% JAX | IND: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 10:19 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +5% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 8:05 | The Jaguars converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +10% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 2:27 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +6% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 1:39 | The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% IND | IND: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 12:21 | The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% JAX | IND: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Shaquille Leonard (IND LB), out · 0.8 pts
- Rigoberto Sanchez (IND P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Colts 0% · Jaguars 100%
- Final margin
- Jaguars by 24
- Luck in points
- 6.3 for the Jaguars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jaguars by 17.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Colts 1% · Jaguars 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · 
Colts · 
Jaguars
More from Week 2 2022
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 27–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Panthers at Giants NYG 19–16 · replay 74% for the winner
- Dolphins at Ravens MIA 42–38 · replay 46% for the winner
- Patriots at Steelers NE 17–14 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jets at Browns NYJ 31–30 · replay 2% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints TB 20–10 · replay 66% for the winner
- Commanders at Lions DET 36–27 · replay 55% for the winner
- Falcons at Rams LA 31–27 · replay 82% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SF 27–7 · replay 73% for the winner
- Cardinals at Raiders ARI 29–23 · replay 66% for the winner
- Bengals at Cowboys DAL 20–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Texans at Broncos DEN 16–9 · replay 97% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 27–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Titans at Bills BUF 41–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Vikings at Eagles PHI 24–7 · replay 99% for the winner