luckadjusted

Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022

Jets at Browns, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jets stole one. They beat the Browns 31–30, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 10 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Jets.

The Jets won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Browns they would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Browns were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:13 left): the Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 89 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 31
Cleveland Browns 30

September 18, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −6.5

Luck index +98 Jets very lucky · −98 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Browns win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 16 CLE 20
  2. 2 NYJ 10 CLE 19
  3. 3 NYJ 24 CLE 37
  4. 4 NYJ 13 CLE 29
  5. 5 NYJ 3 CLE 21
  6. 6 NYJ 13 CLE 34
  7. 7 NYJ 10 CLE 34
  8. 8 NYJ 10 CLE 37
  9. 9 NYJ 17 CLE 48
  10. 10 NYJ 3 CLE 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Jets won on an off day

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Browns they would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%.

31 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jets offenseEPA per play gained +0.26 +0.03 better by 0.23
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.27 +0.15 worse by 0.12
Browns offenseEPA per play gained +0.27 +0.11 better by 0.16
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed +0.26 +0.07 worse by 0.19

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 2% of them, Browns 98%. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.1%
Jets by 9–160.2%
Jets by 1–81.0%
Level after regulation0.4%
Browns by 1–84.5%
Browns by 9–1613.6%
Browns by 17+80.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.0 points to the Browns: the final margin was Jets by 1, without the luck Jets by 7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. York, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 57 yds made · 58% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 8 for 57 yards, Browns 5 for 38 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:36 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q1 0:33 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% CLE +1.5 pts
Q2 5:36 Face Mask on the Browns (Grant Delpit), 14 yards +5% NYJ +1.8 pts
Q2 5:06 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.8 pts
Q2 2:43 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 9 yards, wiping out the play +11% NYJ +3.4 pts
Q3 11:09 Roughing the Passer on the Jets, 7 yards +3% CLE +1.0 pts
Q3 2:45 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% CLE +1.4 pts
Q3 0:44 Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% CLE +1.1 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +20% CLE +3.7 pts
Q4 13:41 False Start on the Browns (David Njoku), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q4 9:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Quincy Williams), 5 yards +3% CLE +1.2 pts
Q4 2:41 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Marcell Harris), 15 yards +1% CLE +1.3 pts
Q4 1:10 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Jordan Elliott), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% NYJ +0.4 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 3:30 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Jets fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% CLE NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:15 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +20% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q4 1:22 Onside kick recovered by the JetsSpecial teams +18% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:00 T. Johnson dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 1 catchable balls before this +32% CLE NYJ: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:35 The Jets got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:25 The Jets converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +31% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:13 The Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +89% NYJ –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bryce Hall (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 81% · Browns 19%

Final margin
Jets by 1
Luck in points
6.1 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 7.1
Replay with same day's form
Jets 2% · Browns 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · Jets · Browns

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