Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022
Bengals at Cowboys, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Bengals 20–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Bengals.
An off day for the Bengals: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bengals were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): B. Maher made 50-yard field goal, worth 30 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 Cincinnati Bengals | 17 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Cowboys about even · −21 Bengals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bengals win 2, Cowboys win 8.
- 1 CIN 20 DAL 7
- 2 CIN 27 DAL 24
- 3 CIN 17 DAL 19
- 4 CIN 17 DAL 21
- 5 CIN 13 DAL 20
- 6 CIN 3 DAL 13
- 7 CIN 12 DAL 24
- 8 CIN 9 DAL 24
- 9 CIN 10 DAL 28
- 10 CIN 10 DAL 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Bengals
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
47 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | +0.11 | worse by 0.07 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.09 | better by 0.02 |
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.13 | worse by 0.05 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.09 | better by 0.05 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bengals win 21% of them, Cowboys 79%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bengals by 17+ | 2.2% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 5.7% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 12.9% |
| Level after regulation | 4.2% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 25.4% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 22.7% |
| Cowboys by 17+ | 27.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 43 yds made · 86% expected
- B. Maher, 54 yds made · 64% expected
- E. McPherson, 50 yds made · 78% expected
- E. McPherson, 46 yds made · 85% expected
- B. Maher, 50 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: Bengals 7 for 35 yards, Cowboys 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:45 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Anthony Barr), 15 yards | +4% CIN +2.3 pts |
| Q1 4:54 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:55 | False Start on the Cowboys (Simi Fehoko), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q2 10:27 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:28 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 15 yards | +4% CIN +1.5 pts |
| Q3 13:42 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CIN +3.3 pts |
| Q3 13:42 | Illegal Formation on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +1.0 pts |
| Q3 10:25 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +1.2 pts |
| Q3 2:55 | Defensive Offside on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:53 | Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Eli Apple), 5 yards | +1% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:56 | False Start on the Bengals (Akeem Davis-Gaither), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 11:56 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.5 pts |
Bengals penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Cowboys’ chance of winning
As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:37 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +5% CIN | DAL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:33 | The Cowboys converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +10% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 1:32 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +9% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 4:54 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +6% DAL | CIN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 6:03 | The Bengals converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +10% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 3:45 | The Bengals’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +11% CIN | CIN: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 2:24 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +7% CIN | DAL: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:03 | B. Maher made 50-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 7 of 14 from 45+ before | +30% DAL | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 5.9 pts
- Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out · 0.8 pts
- Jayron Kearse (DAL FS), out · 0.3 pts
- Isaiah Prince (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Hakeem Adeniji (CIN G), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bengals 7% · Cowboys 93%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 3
- Luck in points
- 13.9 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 16.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Bengals 21% · Cowboys 79% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · 
Bengals · 
Cowboys
More from Week 2 2022
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 27–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Panthers at Giants NYG 19–16 · replay 74% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 24–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Dolphins at Ravens MIA 42–38 · replay 46% for the winner
- Patriots at Steelers NE 17–14 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jets at Browns NYJ 31–30 · replay 2% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints TB 20–10 · replay 66% for the winner
- Commanders at Lions DET 36–27 · replay 55% for the winner
- Falcons at Rams LA 31–27 · replay 82% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SF 27–7 · replay 73% for the winner
- Cardinals at Raiders ARI 29–23 · replay 66% for the winner
- Texans at Broncos DEN 16–9 · replay 97% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 27–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Titans at Bills BUF 41–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Vikings at Eagles PHI 24–7 · replay 99% for the winner