luckadjusted

Week 2 2022 · September 19, 2022

Titans at Bills, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Titans 41–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:27 left): the Titans converted 4th & 1, worth 11 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 7
Buffalo Bills 41

September 19, 2022 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −10

Luck index +1 Bills about even · −1 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 0, Bills win 10.

  1. 1 TEN 14 BUF 17
  2. 2 TEN 10 BUF 19
  3. 3 TEN 6 BUF 19
  4. 4 TEN 3 BUF 19
  5. 5 TEN 10 BUF 29
  6. 6 TEN 14 BUF 37
  7. 7 TEN 14 BUF 39
  8. 8 TEN 7 BUF 35
  9. 9 TEN 6 BUF 38
  10. 10 TEN 0 BUF 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 1% of them, Bills 99%. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 34.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.0%
Titans by 9–160.1%
Titans by 1–80.5%
Level after regulation0.2%
Bills by 1–81.9%
Bills by 9–169.8%
Bills by 17+87.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.2 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 34, without the luck Bills by 23.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 49 yds made · 73% expected
  • T. Bass, 37 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 9 for 87 yards, Bills 8 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:59 Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Gregory Rousseau), 15 yards +3% TEN +2.2 pts
Q1 3:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 13 yards +7% BUF +1.7 pts
Q1 0:36 Encroachment on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.8 pts
Q2 12:15 Face Mask on the Titans, 15 yards, wiping out the play +8% BUF +2.6 pts
Q2 10:23 False Start on the Titans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.1 pts
Q2 9:02 Encroachment on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF 0.0 pts
Q2 8:41 Illegal Contact on the Titans (David Long), 5 yards +2% BUF +0.3 pts
Q2 7:25 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 1:53 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +1.4 pts
Q3 12:20 Defensive Offside on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q3 9:27 Face Mask on the Titans, 15 yards 0% BUF +1.4 pts
Q3 8:33 Delay of Game on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +1.2 pts
Q3 7:32 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.6 pts
Q3 6:09 Face Mask on the Titans (Chris Jackson), 14 yards 0% BUF +1.6 pts
Q3 4:24 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 10 yards 0% BUF +1.9 pts
Q3 0:25 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 4 yards 0% TEN +0.4 pts
Q4 14:39 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Shaq Lawson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.3 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:14 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 5:27 The Titans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +11% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 13 yardsJudgment calls +7% BUF BUF: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 2:10 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +7% TEN BUF: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 13:34 The Titans converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +8% TEN TEN: Punt
6 Q2 12:15 Face Mask on the Titans, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% BUF BUF: Field goal
7 Q2 7:29 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected +6% TEN BUF: Field goal
8 Q2 1:07 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ike Boettger (BUF G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Harold Landry (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 0% · Bills 100%

Final margin
Bills by 34
Luck in points
10.2 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 23.8
Replay with same day's form
Titans 1% · Bills 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · Titans · Bills

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