luckadjusted

Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022

Seahawks at 49ers, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Seahawks 27–7 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:21 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers, 26 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 7
San Francisco 49ers 27

September 18, 2022 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −8.5

Luck index +27 49ers lucky · −27 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 3, 49ers win 7.

  1. 1 SEA 24 SF 10
  2. 2 SEA 21 SF 13
  3. 3 SEA 24 SF 21
  4. 4 SEA 13 SF 15
  5. 5 SEA 23 SF 28
  6. 6 SEA 13 SF 21
  7. 7 SEA 27 SF 38
  8. 8 SEA 6 SF 20
  9. 9 SEA 14 SF 33
  10. 10 SEA 12 SF 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 27% of them, 49ers 73%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+2.9%
Seahawks by 9–166.6%
Seahawks by 1–815.9%
Level after regulation3.8%
49ers by 1–824.3%
49ers by 9–1622.1%
49ers by 17+24.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.5 points to the 49ers: the final margin was 49ers by 20, without the luck 49ers by 9.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Gould, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Gould, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • R. Gould, 20 yds blocked · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 10 for 106 yards, 49ers 1 for 26 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:14 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Darrell Taylor), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.2 pts
Q2 13:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks, 16 yards +3% SF +1.2 pts
Q2 7:03 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the play +9% SF +4.8 pts
Q2 6:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers, 26 yards, wiping out the play +11% SEA +6.7 pts
Q2 0:11 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.3 pts
Q3 12:49 Face Mask on the Seahawks (Al Woods), 15 yards +1% SF +1.4 pts
Q3 4:36 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks, 5 yards +2% SF +2.2 pts
Q4 14:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Michael Jackson), 18 yards +1% SF +2.5 pts
Q4 9:00 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Uchenna Nwosu), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.6 pts
Q4 3:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Michael Jackson), 19 yards 0% SF +3.1 pts
Q4 0:31 Intentional Grounding on the Seahawks (Geno Smith), 13 yards 0% SF +1.0 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:36 The 49ers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% SF SF: Field goal
2 Q1 9:20 R. Gould made 20-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +6% SEA SF: Field goal
3 Q1 8:01 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% SEA SEA: Punt
4 Q1 4:50 The 49ers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% SF SF: Field goal
5 Q2 12:08 The 49ers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +4% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:03 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Seahawks, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% SF SF: Punt
7 Q2 6:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers, 26 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% SEA SEA: Turnover
8 Q3 5:39 R. Gould had a 20-yard field goal blockedKicks · 99% expected for him +4% SEA SF: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • George Kittle (SF TE), out · 1.2 pts
  • Jimmie Ward (SF FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Daniel Brunskill (SF G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Elijah Mitchell (SF RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jake Curhan (SEA T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyler Ott (SEA LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 21% · 49ers 79%

Final margin
49ers by 20
Luck in points
10.5 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 9.5
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 27% · 49ers 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · Seahawks · 49ers

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