Week 2 2022 · September 18, 2022
Panthers at Giants, Week 2 2022: who deserved to win?
The Giants beat the Panthers 19–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 21 points of win probability to the Panthers.
An off day for the Panthers: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:38 left): G. Gano made 56-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to the Giants.
Final
 Carolina Panthers | 16 |
|---|---|
 New York Giants | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +26 Giants lucky · −26 Panthers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 3, Giants win 7.
- 1 CAR 23 NYG 9
- 2 CAR 23 NYG 16
- 3 CAR 19 NYG 17
- 4 CAR 13 NYG 15
- 5 CAR 13 NYG 17
- 6 CAR 7 NYG 15
- 7 CAR 3 NYG 14
- 8 CAR 0 NYG 14
- 9 CAR 13 NYG 31
- 10 CAR 10 NYG 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Panthers
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 26%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
30 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.05 | worse by 0.03 |
| Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.13 | +0.07 | better by 0.19 |
| Giants offenseEPA per play gained | −0.13 | +0.03 | worse by 0.16 |
| Giants defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.12 | better by 0.11 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Panthers win 26% of them, Giants 74%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 17+ | 2.6% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 7.4% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 14.0% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 26.5% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 21.8% |
| Giants by 17+ | 24.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Gano, 36 yds made · 93% expected
- G. Gano, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- E. Pineiro, 31 yds made · 95% expected
- E. Pineiro, 32 yds made · 95% expected
- G. Gano, 52 yds made · 71% expected
- E. Pineiro, 38 yds made · 89% expected
- G. Gano, 56 yds made · 65% expected
Penalties: Panthers 5 for 38 yards, Giants 8 for 62 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:07 | Face Mask on the Giants (Jihad Ward), 15 yards | +5% CAR +1.8 pts |
| Q1 10:54 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Shi Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% NYG +1.8 pts |
| Q2 10:11 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +12% CAR +4.1 pts |
| Q2 6:13 | False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:28 | Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Giants (Matt Breida), 5 yards | +2% CAR +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:59 | Illegal Contact on the Giants (Julian Love), 5 yards | +2% CAR +1.1 pts |
| Q3 5:03 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAR +0.8 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 13 yards | +7% NYG +1.7 pts |
| Q4 11:48 | Illegal Contact on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 5 yards | +1% CAR +0.4 pts |
| Q4 11:03 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers, 5 yards | +1% NYG +0.8 pts |
| Q4 4:25 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards | +9% CAR +1.2 pts |
| Q4 2:57 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 7 yards | +1% CAR +0.2 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Encroachment on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYG +0.4 pts |
Panthers penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Giants’ chance of winning
As low as 26% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:16 | The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +8% NYG | NYG: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 12:23 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedS. Smith dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 1 catchable balls before this | +9% NYG | CAR: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 10:11 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +12% CAR | CAR: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 1:24 | The Panthers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +9% CAR | CAR: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 14:44 | The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +10% NYG | NYG: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 4:25 | Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +9% CAR | CAR: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 3:38 | G. Gano made 56-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 20 of 24 from 45+ before | +13% NYG | NYG: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 2:42 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +11% NYG | CAR: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Aaron Robinson (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Azeez Ojulari (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Zane Gonzalez (CAR K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 54% · Giants 46%
- Final margin
- Giants by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 0.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 26% · Giants 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2022 games · 
Panthers · 
Giants
More from Week 2 2022
- Chargers at Chiefs KC 27–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 24–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Dolphins at Ravens MIA 42–38 · replay 46% for the winner
- Patriots at Steelers NE 17–14 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jets at Browns NYJ 31–30 · replay 2% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints TB 20–10 · replay 66% for the winner
- Commanders at Lions DET 36–27 · replay 55% for the winner
- Falcons at Rams LA 31–27 · replay 82% for the winner
- Seahawks at 49ers SF 27–7 · replay 73% for the winner
- Cardinals at Raiders ARI 29–23 · replay 66% for the winner
- Bengals at Cowboys DAL 20–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Texans at Broncos DEN 16–9 · replay 97% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 27–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Titans at Bills BUF 41–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Vikings at Eagles PHI 24–7 · replay 99% for the winner