luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · September 22, 2022–September 26

Week 3 2022: who deserved to win

2 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Colts beat the Chiefs 20–17 in a game they win 5% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 3 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 9 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Jaguars 38–10 @ Chargers 32% 86% Deserved
Colts 20–17 vs Chiefs 37% 5% Lucky
Dolphins 21–19 vs Bills 38% 60% Coin flip
Panthers 22–14 vs Saints 44% 78% Deserved
Titans 24–22 vs Raiders 46% 54% Coin flip
Broncos 11–10 vs 49ers 47% 45% Coin flip
Falcons 27–23 @ Seahawks 47% 54% Coin flip
Packers 14–12 @ Buccaneers 47% 53% Coin flip
Cowboys 23–16 @ Giants 47% 96% Deserved

Week 3 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Colts W 20–17 vs Chiefs 5% +95
2 Broncos W 11–10 vs 49ers 45% +55
3 Packers W 14–12 @ Buccaneers 53% +47
4 Titans W 24–22 vs Raiders 54% +46
5 Falcons W 27–23 @ Seahawks 54% +46
6 Dolphins W 21–19 vs Bills 60% +40
7 Ravens W 37–26 @ Patriots 68% +32
8 Bears W 23–20 vs Texans 72% +28
9 Vikings W 28–24 vs Lions 77% +23
10 Panthers W 22–14 vs Saints 78% +22
11 Rams W 20–12 @ Cardinals 81% +19
12 Browns W 29–17 vs Steelers 83% +17
13 Jaguars W 38–10 @ Chargers 86% +14
14 Eagles W 24–8 @ Commanders 93% +7
15 Bengals W 27–12 @ Jets 94% +6
16 Cowboys W 23–16 @ Giants 96% +4
17 Giants L 16–23 vs Cowboys 4% −4
18 Jets L 12–27 vs Bengals 6% −6
19 Commanders L 8–24 vs Eagles 7% −7
20 Chargers L 10–38 vs Jaguars 14% −14
21 Steelers L 17–29 @ Browns 17% −17
22 Cardinals L 12–20 vs Rams 19% −19
23 Saints L 14–22 @ Panthers 22% −22
24 Lions L 24–28 @ Vikings 23% −23
25 Texans L 20–23 @ Bears 28% −28
26 Patriots L 26–37 vs Ravens 32% −32
27 Bills L 19–21 @ Dolphins 40% −40
28 Raiders L 22–24 @ Titans 46% −46
29 Seahawks L 23–27 vs Falcons 46% −46
30 Buccaneers L 12–14 vs Packers 47% −47
31 49ers L 10–11 @ Broncos 55% −55
32 Chiefs L 17–20 @ Colts 95% −95