luckadjusted

Week 3 2022 · September 25, 2022

Rams at Cardinals, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Cardinals 20–12, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:16 left): the Rams converted 3rd & 11, worth 9 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 20
Arizona Cardinals 12

September 25, 2022 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Rams −3.5

Luck index +19 Rams about even · −19 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 8, Cardinals win 2.

  1. 1 LA 41 ARI 12
  2. 2 LA 27 ARI 6
  3. 3 LA 21 ARI 6
  4. 4 LA 20 ARI 7
  5. 5 LA 27 ARI 17
  6. 6 LA 17 ARI 10
  7. 7 LA 20 ARI 17
  8. 8 LA 17 ARI 16
  9. 9 LA 16 ARI 19
  10. 10 LA 27 ARI 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 81% of them, Cardinals 19%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+31.3%
Rams by 9–1621.5%
Rams by 1–826.3%
Level after regulation1.9%
Cardinals by 1–811.7%
Cardinals by 9–165.7%
Cardinals by 17+1.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 8, without the luck Rams by 5.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Gay, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • M. Prater, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Prater, 43 yds made · 84% expected
  • M. Prater, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • M. Prater, 31 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 6 for 35 yards, Cardinals 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:34 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +6% ARI +1.4 pts
Q1 7:33 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q1 0:01 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.8 pts
Q2 11:35 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.8 pts
Q2 11:21 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% LA +1.6 pts
Q2 0:29 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Andy Isabella), 10 yards +3% LA +1.1 pts
Q2 0:20 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +2% LA +1.0 pts
Q2 0:02 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 0 yards 0% ARI 0.0 pts
Q3 13:08 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Tanner Vallejo), 10 yards +4% LA +0.9 pts
Q3 5:10 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +5% ARI +1.5 pts
Q3 0:24 False Start on the Cardinals (Darrel Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.6 pts
Q4 3:43 False Start on the Cardinals (Zach Ertz), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.4 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:34 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% ARI ARI: Punt
2 Q2 1:57 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedJ. Conner dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 10 catchable balls before this +7% LA ARI: Field goal
3 Q3 11:52 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% LA ARI: Field goal
4 Q3 11:22 The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +6% ARI ARI: Field goal
5 Q3 5:10 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yardsJudgment calls +5% ARI ARI: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 4:16 The Rams converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:03 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% ARI ARI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 15:00 The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% ARI ARI: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Antoine Wesley (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Van Jefferson (LA WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Troy Hill (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Allen (LA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA SS), out · 0.2 pts
  • David Long (LA CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Travin Howard (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 73% · Cardinals 27%

Final margin
Rams by 8
Luck in points
2.7 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Rams 81% · Cardinals 19% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Rams · Cardinals

More from Week 3 2022