Week 3 2022 · September 26, 2022
Cowboys at Giants, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Giants 23–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Giants.
An off day for the Giants: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:27 left): the Cowboys converted 4th & 4, worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 23 |
|---|---|
 New York Giants | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +4 Cowboys about even · −4 Giants
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 10, Giants win 0.
- 1 DAL 40 NYG 3
- 2 DAL 40 NYG 10
- 3 DAL 34 NYG 10
- 4 DAL 30 NYG 10
- 5 DAL 43 NYG 26
- 6 DAL 48 NYG 34
- 7 DAL 40 NYG 27
- 8 DAL 20 NYG 10
- 9 DAL 20 NYG 14
- 10 DAL 27 NYG 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Giants
They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
47 points apart for the Giants: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.12 | better by 0.07 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.04 | +0.09 | better by 0.13 |
| Giants offenseEPA per play gained | −0.04 | +0.02 | worse by 0.06 |
| Giants defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.12 | worse by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 96% of them, Giants 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 70.6% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 17.6% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 8.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 2.5% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Giants by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Gano, 47 yds blocked · 80% expected
- B. Maher, 26 yds made · 97% expected
- G. Gano, 42 yds made · 85% expected
- B. Maher, 28 yds made · 96% expected
- B. Maher, 59 yds missed · 53% expected
- G. Gano, 51 yds made · 73% expected
- B. Maher, 44 yds made · 79% expected
- G. Gano, 51 yds made · 73% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 8 for 70 yards, Giants 8 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:17 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% NYG +1.4 pts |
| Q1 10:51 | Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Anthony Barr), 5 yards | +2% NYG +1.5 pts |
| Q1 7:04 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants (Jihad Ward), 5 yards | +3% DAL +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:39 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:09 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants, 10 yards | +2% DAL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:41 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% NYG +2.1 pts |
| Q2 6:11 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:35 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Sterling Shepard), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% DAL +2.1 pts |
| Q3 13:43 | Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 5 yards | +7% NYG +2.6 pts |
| Q3 11:27 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +10% DAL +2.0 pts |
| Q3 0:27 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 15 yards | +5% NYG +1.4 pts |
| Q4 13:30 | Defensive Offside on the Giants, 6 yards · pre-snap | +3% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:49 | Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 4:41 | Face Mask on the Cowboys (Kelvin Joseph), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +5% NYG +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:52 | Intentional Grounding on the Giants (Daniel Jones), 11 yards | +3% DAL +1.5 pts |
| Q4 1:17 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% DAL +0.3 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Giants’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 7:49 | G. Gano had a 47-yard field goal blockedKicks · 80% expected for him, 21 of 25 from 45+ before | +11% DAL | NYG: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 5:10 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +11% DAL | DAL: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 0:10 | The Giants were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +9% DAL | NYG: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 0:04 | B. Maher missed 59-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 8 of 15 from 45+ before | +10% NYG | DAL: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 11:27 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +10% DAL | DAL: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 14:53 | The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedS. Shepard dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 13 catchable balls before this | +12% DAL | NYG: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 10:27 | The Cowboys converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +15% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 7:49 | The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedK. Golladay dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 2 catchable balls before thisDelay of Game on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +12% DAL | NYG: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Leonard Williams (NYG DT), out · 0.6 pts
- Aaron Robinson (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 5.4 pts
- Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Dalton Schultz (DAL TE), out · 0.9 pts
- Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out · 0.8 pts
- Jayron Kearse (DAL FS), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 61% · Giants 39%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 10.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 96% · Giants 4% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · 
Cowboys · 
Giants
More from Week 3 2022
- Steelers at Browns CLE 29–17 · replay 83% for the winner
- Ravens at Patriots BAL 37–26 · replay 68% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins MIA 21–19 · replay 60% for the winner
- Bengals at Jets CIN 27–12 · replay 94% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings MIN 28–24 · replay 77% for the winner
- Texans at Bears CHI 23–20 · replay 72% for the winner
- Chiefs at Colts IND 20–17 · replay 5% for the winner
- Raiders at Titans TEN 24–22 · replay 54% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers CAR 22–14 · replay 78% for the winner
- Eagles at Commanders PHI 24–8 · replay 93% for the winner
- Jaguars at Chargers JAX 38–10 · replay 86% for the winner
- Falcons at Seahawks ATL 27–23 · replay 54% for the winner
- Packers at Buccaneers GB 14–12 · replay 53% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 20–12 · replay 81% for the winner
- 49ers at Broncos DEN 11–10 · replay 45% for the winner