luckadjusted

Week 3 2022 · September 22, 2022

Steelers at Browns, Week 3 2022: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Steelers 29–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 63% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q3, 10:44 left): Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 17 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 17
Cleveland Browns 29

September 22, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −4.5

Luck index +17 Browns about even · −17 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 2, Browns win 8.

  1. 1 PIT 20 CLE 7
  2. 2 PIT 27 CLE 24
  3. 3 PIT 14 CLE 16
  4. 4 PIT 9 CLE 13
  5. 5 PIT 13 CLE 20
  6. 6 PIT 6 CLE 16
  7. 7 PIT 9 CLE 22
  8. 8 PIT 10 CLE 26
  9. 9 PIT 17 CLE 38
  10. 10 PIT 13 CLE 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 17% of them, Browns 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+1.3%
Steelers by 9–163.6%
Steelers by 1–810.5%
Level after regulation1.6%
Browns by 1–820.3%
Browns by 9–1623.7%
Browns by 17+39.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 12, without the luck Browns by 7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 49 yds missed · 78% expected
  • C. York, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Boswell, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 5 for 25 yards, Browns 5 for 24 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:48 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.8 pts
Q2 14:28 Illegal Touch Pass on the Browns (Amari Cooper), 0 yards 0% PIT 0.0 pts
Q2 0:30 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yards +1% PIT +0.1 pts
Q3 13:47 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.7 pts
Q3 10:44 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +17% CLE +3.5 pts
Q3 9:40 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.5 pts
Q3 6:39 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +12% PIT +2.0 pts
Q4 8:46 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.8 pts
Q4 1:51 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.4 pts
Q4 1:48 Offside on Free Kick on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.5 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:27 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +8% PIT CLE: Punt
2 Q1 6:00 C. Boswell missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 27 of 32 from 45+ before +11% CLE PIT: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:02 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:34 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +15% PIT CLE: Field goal
5 Q3 10:44 The game turned hereIneligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% CLE CLE: Field goal
6 Q3 6:39 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yardsJudgment calls +12% PIT PIT: Punt
7 Q3 4:41 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% CLE CLE: Field goal
8 Q4 15:00 The Browns converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jadeveon Clowney (CLE DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kendrick Green (PIT C), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 14% · Browns 86%

Final margin
Browns by 12
Luck in points
5.0 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 17% · Browns 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2022 games · Steelers · Browns

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